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Matt - Wintry precipitation still a possibility on the table for Wednesday.

Matt's 5 PM Forecast.

Posted: Nov. 13, 2018 5:53 PM
Updated: Nov. 13, 2018 5:53 PM

Speech to Text for Matt - Wintry precipitation still a possibility on the table for Wednesday.

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the remainder of this afternoon into the evening will feature a continuation of overcast skies and brisk winds out of the north to northeast. winds will continue between 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts slightly above that range possible. the gusty north to northeasterly winds are helping with the influx of colder but also slightly drier surface air.colder and drier air has been moving in aggressively enough that our confidence has grown that some impacts could be observed as an upper level low (cold core system) moves into our area and combines with incoming moisture from the gulf of mexico and with a lingering elevated frontal boundary. this will lead to a complex series of interactions that when all is said and done could lead to a mixture of wintry precipitation being observed perhaps as early as pre-dawn to early afternoon on wednesday and lasting into the evening perhaps as late as the overnight towards thursday morning. for these reasons, a winter weather advisory has been issued for portions of our area valid between 3 am on wednesday until 6 am on thursday morning.we are analyzing the latest data coming in (many simulations seem to be initialing or starting with a less than ideal representation of current conditions) and trying to correct for where we believe the models are performing inaccurately. our confidence in the potential for freezing rain, and sleet being on the table for tomorrow has grown some since this morning. in particular, now that temperatures are dropping consistently and are likely to continue to do so heading into the evening and overnight hours. freezing rain being observed could allow for ice accumulations on elevated surfaces, bridges overpasses, and perhaps on tree branches and on power lines.in terms of ice accumulation amounts, it is still very difficult to pinpoint exactly what we could be looking at. we will be working very hard this afternoon and into the evening hours to continue coming up with the best estimates that we can. b the best advice at this point would be that people should anticipate at least some travel impacts to be possible if not likely particularly on elevated road surfaces (bridges and overpasses). also many trees are still bearing many if not most of their leaves. this could be an important detail as each leaf provides a surface (increases the overall surface area of the tree) on which ice can accumulate and thus can greatly increase the weight that individual tree branches or trees themselves have to support. thus some tree branches, perhaps weak trees could also be impacts and hand in hand with that potential will come the possibility for at least a few spotty power outages. again, please continue to monitor the forecast this is one that is likely to change quite as we progress through the next 24 hours. this wintry precipitation will linger into wednesday night and thursday morning, exiting our region
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