The US is starting to see 'glimmers' that social distancing could be slowing the spread of coronavirus -- but there's more to do, officials say

Nurse practitioner Elyse Isopo says that in the 20 years she's been working in a New York ICU, she has never seen things as bad as they are now with the coronavirus.

Posted: Mar 31, 2020 5:51 PM
Updated: Mar 31, 2020 5:51 PM

Early clues -- in places like New York, California and Seattle -- indicate social distancing may be slowing the rate at which coronavirus cases otherwise would have increased in the United States.

But health officials warn it's too early to know how well it's working -- and even if mitigation measures continue, the number of US deaths still could be hard to take.

"We're starting to see glimmers that (social distancing) is actually having some dampening effect" on the spread of coronavirus, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN on Tuesday morning.

"We hope ... that we may start seeing a turnaround, but we haven't seen it yet," he said.

Cases and deaths are soaring: At least 3,561 people have died in the United States -- more than 770 of which were reported Tuesday alone. More than 178,000 coronavirus cases have been reported in the country.

There are, however, signs that rates of case increases may have been slowed in some places. It's too early to pinpoint why, though the signs have come after federal and state officials urged people to stay at home or avoid crowds:

• New York has by far the most US cases (75,700+) and deaths (1,500+). But the state's average of day-over-day case increases for the past seven days was 17%, compared to 58% for the previous seven-day period, a CNN analysis shows.

• In Northern California, "the surge we have been anticipating has not yet come," Dr. Jahan Fahimi, medical director at the University of California San Francisco Health, told CNN. San Francisco issued the country's first shelter-in-place order two weeks ago, and officials hope it is paying off. That hope has not necessarily reached Los Angeles County, where hospitals are seeing a steady patient increase.

• In Washington state's King County, two new reports from an institute that specializes in studying disease transmission dynamics showed social distancing measures appeared to be making a difference.

Still, even if all states mandate social distancing within the next week, and then maintained this through May, some 82,000 people in the US could die from coronavirus by August, University of Washington health metrics sciences professor Christopher Murray told CNN on Tuesday, citing his modeling.

The model estimates that more than 2,000 people could die each day in the United States in mid-April, when the virus is predicted to hit the country hardest.

Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House's coronavirus response coordinator, has said worst-case projections show "between 1.6 million and 2.2 million deaths if you do nothing."

President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the United States would extend its set of social distancing guidelines for 30 days.

Doctors and health officials still are pleading for people to stay home, to slow the disease's spread and dampen the rush at hospitals in hot spot cities, where physicians are running low on supplies to protect themselves and equipment to support patients.

"We don't have a magic bullet (treatment) for this disease, so the best thing we can do is prevent infection," and therefore we must continue to generally stay at home, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, chief of infectious disease at Massachusetts General Hospital, told CNN Tuesday.

New Orleans hospitals may run out of ventilators by the weekend, Collin Arnold, director of the New Orleans Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness, told CNN.

"Staying at home and isolating is the way to beat this," he said Tuesday.

Your coronavirus questions, answered

Economic consequences

Signs continue to emerge that the pandemic is posing huge challenges to the US economy.

Food banks across the nation are struggling. Millions of newly unemployed people mean the food banks are seeing a flood of new clients, just as supplies start to dwindle because of growing demand from consumers stuck at home.

The investment bank Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, predicts the unemployment rate rising to 15% by the middle of the year.

'Stay at home, buy us time'

In parts of the country, walking into work feels like walking into a war zone for many medical care workers.

"There is not enough of anything," one trauma physician at Miami's Jackson Memorial Hospital said. "There are just so many patients who are so sick, it seems impossible to keep up with the demand."

Inside New York City's Elmhurst hospital, one doctor told CNN "we are at the brink of not being able to care for patients."

It may seem simple, another doctor says, but staying at home could also be saving those working to save patients.

"It feels like coronavirus is everywhere and it feels like we have very little to protect ourselves from getting very sick ourselves as healthcare workers," Dr. Cornelia Griggs, a pediatric surgery fellow at Columbia University, said Monday. "I want everyone at home to know that even though it seems like staying at home is futile, it's not."

"We need everyone at home to hold the line, stay at home. Buy us time, flatten the curve."

The city's police and fire personnel are struggling, too.

At the New York Police Department, 1,193 employees -- 1,048 uniformed officers and 145 civilian workers -- had tested positive for coronavirus by Tuesday morning, a law enforcement source told CNN. More than 5,600 members of the department -- about 15% of the force -- were out sick Tuesday, according to the source.

New York City Fire Department paramedic Madelyn Higueros, who works in the area near Elmhurst hospital, said her shifts have been extra hectic, responding to call after call from people with flu-like symptoms.

Her husband, also a city paramedic, has tested positive for coronavirus and is self-isolating away from the family. She doesn't have symptoms.

"Most of the station is out with symptoms," she said. "The ones that are still working, we're so tired. ... We're working over 16 hours a day."

The city fire department had 282 members test positive for coronavirus, spokesman Jim Long said Tuesday.

States clamp down

More than two dozen governors have stepped up to combat the spread of the virus, issuing stay-at-home orders that now cover more than three-fourths of the American population -- and authorities have begun cracking down on those who refuse to abide.

In Kentucky, Gov. Andy Beshear also issued an executive order Monday barring residents from traveling to other states -- with just a handful of exceptions -- and directing those who are returning to Kentucky from another state to self-quarantine for two weeks.

"Right now we have more cases in other states," he said. "What it means is your likelihood of getting infected and potentially bringing back the coronavirus may be greater in other states than ours. You need to be home anyways."

In North Dakota, residents coming back from any of the 24 states the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have classified as having "widespread disease" are also required to quarantine for two weeks. Those states include California, New York, Illinois and Georgia.

Those not following orders to stay at home and keep a distance have begun facing consequences.

A popular Florida pastor was arrested Monday for continuing to hold large services and charged with unlawful assembly and violation of public health emergency rules, both second-degree misdemeanors.

"Last night I made a decision to seek an arrest warrant for the pastor of a local church who intentionally, and repeatedly, chose to disregard the orders set in place by our president, our governor, the CDC and the Hillsborough County Emergency policy group," Hillsborough County Sheriff Chad Chronister said.

"His reckless disregard for human life put hundreds of people in his congregation at risk, and thousands of residents who may interact with them this week in danger," he added.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 32888

Reported Deaths: 1188
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hinds259141
DeSoto172418
Madison132635
Jones114049
Neshoba100473
Rankin98213
Harrison96911
Lauderdale92280
Forrest91643
Scott77915
Jackson68917
Copiah62015
Washington61710
Leake58919
Lee56220
Holmes56041
Oktibbeha55227
Wayne54515
Warren53218
Yazoo5236
Lowndes50913
Grenada5067
Leflore50053
Lamar4917
Lincoln48434
Pike45416
Monroe42534
Sunflower4208
Lafayette4094
Covington3755
Attala36523
Panola3646
Bolivar35618
Newton3479
Simpson3453
Adams31518
Tate31011
Pontotoc3046
Marion30012
Chickasaw28719
Claiborne28410
Winston2808
Noxubee2728
Jasper2676
Pearl River26532
Marshall2583
Clay24911
Smith22911
Union21810
Clarke21025
Coahoma2056
Walthall2056
Lawrence1872
Yalobusha1807
Kemper17914
Carroll16811
Humphreys1569
Tallahatchie1454
Calhoun1414
Montgomery1392
Tippah13811
Itawamba1378
Hancock13413
Webster12711
Jefferson Davis1134
Tunica1133
Jefferson1103
Prentiss1103
Greene1059
Amite1043
Wilkinson939
George913
Tishomingo891
Quitman811
Choctaw754
Alcorn742
Perry724
Stone692
Franklin452
Benton420
Sharkey370
Issaquena101
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Confirmed Cases: 46424

Reported Deaths: 1032
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Jefferson5486155
Montgomery4246105
Mobile4219136
Tuscaloosa234644
Marshall177011
Madison15548
Lee143337
Shelby135724
Morgan11285
Walker98525
Baldwin9809
Elmore96215
Dallas9109
Franklin90216
Etowah79013
DeKalb7615
Chambers64327
Autauga63612
Butler63228
Tallapoosa60469
Russell5680
Unassigned52226
Limestone5181
Houston5106
Lauderdale5016
Lowndes47821
Cullman4705
Pike4525
Colbert4266
St. Clair4162
Escambia4118
Calhoun3875
Coffee3863
Covington3727
Bullock36810
Barbour3572
Talladega3237
Marengo31711
Hale31521
Dale3020
Jackson3022
Wilcox2948
Sumter28512
Clarke2836
Winston2663
Chilton2622
Blount2511
Monroe2412
Pickens2386
Marion23613
Conecuh2177
Randolph2169
Macon1999
Choctaw19712
Bibb1961
Greene1868
Perry1791
Henry1363
Crenshaw1253
Washington1187
Lawrence1090
Cherokee1037
Geneva840
Lamar801
Fayette721
Clay692
Coosa591
Cleburne391
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