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A frightening signal for Republicans

President Donald Trump makes a prediction at a "Keep America Great" rally the night before Kentucky's gubernatorial election where Governor Matt Bevin (R-KY) was facing a close race against Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear.

Posted: Nov 6, 2019 12:00 PM
Updated: Nov 6, 2019 12:00 PM

Republicans have good reason to be unhappy with some of Tuesday's election results. Democrats took control of the Senate and House of Delegates in Virginia. In Kentucky, a very red state, Democrat Andy Beshear has claimed victory, potentially injecting some blue into the state capital by defeating Gov. Matt Bevin, who is refusing to concede.

State elections are not always seen as relevant to national politics. It is easy to overblow the implications of an election. Experts can easily find a multiplicity of local factors, some related to the particular personality or record of a candidate or about local politics that explain the results on any given day. It is easy to read too much from these kinds of elections; often, when the presidential election takes place, they are quickly forgotten.

Republicans will spend the next few days trying to explain why, if Bevin indeed lost, this was all about Bevin's failings rather than about Trump, and that explains why the strong support of President Donald Trump and other national Republicans couldn't secure a victory.

But in the context of the 2020 presidential election and the intensifying impeachment investigation, national Republicans are watching with a close eye. Even if they are publicly explaining away the results as having nothing to do with Trump, privately they are likely scared about the implications.

Republicans can't be happy with the surging success of Democrats in suburban and even some exurban areas. These are concrete manifestations of the impact of Trumpian Republicanism on the electorate.

Right now, House and Senate Republicans are very eager to figure out what kind of impact President Trump is having on their party and what kind of collateral damage they might suffer as a result of standing by their man. As Republicans keep figuring out how far they will go to stand behind Trump, these are the numbers that can move them.

After all, Republican officials' love for President Trump was not about the man but, rather, about the party. GOP leaders are banking on the kinds of polls that Nate Cohn reported on in The New York Times, which suggested that Trump remains extremely competitive against all the major Democratic candidates in the key battleground states.

But Tuesday's results will be extraordinarily frightening for Republicans. Like the 2018 House midterms, which were devastating to the GOP, the results in Kentucky and Virginia offer evidence that the president's record is putting their party in real jeopardy. They show that the president's imprint on politics -- more than almost anything else -- has the capacity to drive up Democratic turnout as the party's loyalists, including union members, show they are furious about what has taken place.

The president, who flew to Kentucky on the eve of the election in an effort to salvage the situation, understands the implications. Although he is far from sophisticated when it comes to politics, he has a strong instinctive feel for the centrality of partisan polarization to modern politics. And he knows that the intense partisanship that has been central to protecting him on Capitol Hill can start to vanish if the party sees that he can no longer deliver results.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 513622

Reported Deaths: 10264
CountyCasesDeaths
Harrison34892556
DeSoto33234432
Hinds32638641
Jackson24854389
Rankin22507403
Lee16337242
Madison14922283
Jones14113247
Forrest13766259
Lauderdale12270324
Lowndes11305193
Lamar10659140
Pearl River9719244
Lafayette8846143
Hancock7836132
Washington7550169
Oktibbeha7210138
Monroe7010179
Pontotoc6990109
Warren6863178
Panola6759134
Neshoba6730210
Marshall6678141
Bolivar6445151
Union638297
Pike5928156
Alcorn5879107
Lincoln5530136
George510180
Prentiss503884
Tippah491482
Itawamba4844107
Scott477899
Adams4768125
Tate4756116
Leflore4729144
Copiah456495
Yazoo456491
Simpson4546117
Wayne443072
Covington433695
Sunflower4299106
Marion4277112
Coahoma4237109
Leake413990
Newton395781
Tishomingo383593
Grenada3777109
Stone365866
Jasper340666
Attala338290
Winston317892
Chickasaw315467
Clay312278
Clarke301195
Calhoun285049
Holmes271889
Smith269052
Yalobusha243947
Tallahatchie231553
Greene224749
Walthall221666
Lawrence218740
Perry213456
Amite209857
Webster205348
Noxubee188742
Montgomery181657
Carroll174541
Jefferson Davis173643
Tunica163239
Benton152939
Kemper145041
Choctaw136727
Claiborne134338
Humphreys131239
Franklin125529
Quitman107628
Wilkinson105939
Jefferson96934
Sharkey65221
Issaquena1957
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 845284

Reported Deaths: 16116
CountyCasesDeaths
Jefferson1161552006
Mobile742111380
Madison53307732
Shelby38338368
Baldwin38085589
Tuscaloosa36022641
Montgomery34492781
Lee25562263
Calhoun22586518
Morgan22459406
Etowah20018517
Marshall18782316
Houston17731425
St. Clair16884358
Limestone16148218
Cullman16054303
Elmore15904294
Lauderdale14989306
Talladega14196299
DeKalb12972269
Walker12030380
Blount10717192
Autauga10517157
Jackson10162194
Coffee9417192
Colbert9342208
Dale9020191
Tallapoosa7256201
Russell708165
Chilton7018170
Escambia6957143
Covington6933195
Franklin6342108
Chambers5784142
Marion5406130
Dallas5285209
Pike5119109
Clarke484986
Lawrence4826129
Winston4780110
Geneva4642136
Bibb434094
Barbour369580
Butler3435100
Marengo342493
Monroe337266
Randolph334867
Pickens333188
Fayette330385
Henry320666
Hale318389
Cherokee317863
Crenshaw260477
Washington257052
Cleburne254460
Lamar251453
Clay250869
Macon244864
Conecuh192862
Coosa185047
Lowndes178168
Wilcox177438
Bullock152645
Perry141840
Sumter139241
Greene130245
Choctaw93228
Out of AL00
Unassigned00
Tupelo
Clear
71° wxIcon
Hi: 71° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 71°
Columbus
Clear
70° wxIcon
Hi: 71° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 70°
Oxford
Clear
68° wxIcon
Hi: 69° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 68°
Starkville
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Hi: 72° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 70°
High pressure will continue to control our weather forecast for the next several days. This will keep our area filled with plenty of sunshine. We will see both daytime highs and overnight lows gradually get milder and warmer.
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