A frightening signal for Republicans

President Donald Trump makes a prediction at a "Keep America Great" rally the night before Kentucky's gubernatorial election where Governor Matt Bevin (R-KY) was facing a close race against Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear.

Posted: Nov 6, 2019 12:00 PM
Updated: Nov 6, 2019 12:00 PM

Republicans have good reason to be unhappy with some of Tuesday's election results. Democrats took control of the Senate and House of Delegates in Virginia. In Kentucky, a very red state, Democrat Andy Beshear has claimed victory, potentially injecting some blue into the state capital by defeating Gov. Matt Bevin, who is refusing to concede.

State elections are not always seen as relevant to national politics. It is easy to overblow the implications of an election. Experts can easily find a multiplicity of local factors, some related to the particular personality or record of a candidate or about local politics that explain the results on any given day. It is easy to read too much from these kinds of elections; often, when the presidential election takes place, they are quickly forgotten.

Republicans will spend the next few days trying to explain why, if Bevin indeed lost, this was all about Bevin's failings rather than about Trump, and that explains why the strong support of President Donald Trump and other national Republicans couldn't secure a victory.

But in the context of the 2020 presidential election and the intensifying impeachment investigation, national Republicans are watching with a close eye. Even if they are publicly explaining away the results as having nothing to do with Trump, privately they are likely scared about the implications.

Republicans can't be happy with the surging success of Democrats in suburban and even some exurban areas. These are concrete manifestations of the impact of Trumpian Republicanism on the electorate.

Right now, House and Senate Republicans are very eager to figure out what kind of impact President Trump is having on their party and what kind of collateral damage they might suffer as a result of standing by their man. As Republicans keep figuring out how far they will go to stand behind Trump, these are the numbers that can move them.

After all, Republican officials' love for President Trump was not about the man but, rather, about the party. GOP leaders are banking on the kinds of polls that Nate Cohn reported on in The New York Times, which suggested that Trump remains extremely competitive against all the major Democratic candidates in the key battleground states.

But Tuesday's results will be extraordinarily frightening for Republicans. Like the 2018 House midterms, which were devastating to the GOP, the results in Kentucky and Virginia offer evidence that the president's record is putting their party in real jeopardy. They show that the president's imprint on politics -- more than almost anything else -- has the capacity to drive up Democratic turnout as the party's loyalists, including union members, show they are furious about what has taken place.

The president, who flew to Kentucky on the eve of the election in an effort to salvage the situation, understands the implications. Although he is far from sophisticated when it comes to politics, he has a strong instinctive feel for the centrality of partisan polarization to modern politics. And he knows that the intense partisanship that has been central to protecting him on Capitol Hill can start to vanish if the party sees that he can no longer deliver results.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 265146

Reported Deaths: 5777
CountyCasesDeaths
DeSoto17741191
Hinds16891332
Harrison14279204
Rankin11239220
Jackson10917190
Lee9071145
Madison8599169
Jones6731118
Forrest6208124
Lauderdale6121192
Lowndes5544120
Lafayette520598
Lamar505865
Washington4933125
Bolivar4126109
Oktibbeha408382
Panola386981
Pontotoc377460
Monroe3686110
Warren3685103
Marshall357170
Union356864
Pearl River3495106
Neshoba3490154
Leflore3118109
Lincoln306788
Hancock294262
Sunflower291975
Tate280662
Alcorn273154
Pike270181
Itawamba269363
Scott260048
Yazoo256756
Prentiss253754
Coahoma249755
Copiah249749
Tippah249750
Simpson242872
Leake238167
Marion224273
Grenada223972
Covington221073
Adams215171
Wayne213734
Winston207671
George204739
Newton199946
Attala197064
Tishomingo194961
Chickasaw189344
Jasper181138
Holmes172068
Clay166837
Tallahatchie157235
Stone152525
Clarke148162
Calhoun141322
Smith130026
Yalobusha123335
Walthall114537
Greene113729
Noxubee113026
Montgomery112036
Carroll106822
Lawrence106817
Perry105131
Amite102126
Webster96824
Tunica89021
Claiborne88825
Jefferson Davis88430
Benton85823
Humphreys84724
Kemper80920
Quitman7139
Franklin70617
Choctaw63713
Wilkinson59825
Jefferson56821
Sharkey45217
Issaquena1606
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Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 441170

Reported Deaths: 6660
CountyCasesDeaths
Jefferson646811007
Mobile31620572
Madison28310217
Tuscaloosa21525275
Montgomery19954332
Shelby19335132
Baldwin17256189
Lee13205107
Morgan12639142
Etowah12107181
Calhoun11521206
Marshall10471123
Houston9009164
Limestone834981
Cullman8274124
Elmore8214110
DeKalb7894107
Lauderdale7871107
St. Clair7854130
Talladega6481112
Walker6036183
Jackson601545
Colbert549994
Blount547386
Autauga537662
Coffee462464
Dale410785
Franklin374950
Russell357515
Chilton345473
Covington339680
Escambia335444
Tallapoosa3149109
Dallas313296
Chambers304270
Clarke300236
Pike262531
Lawrence254155
Marion253761
Winston233642
Bibb222348
Geneva211547
Marengo209331
Pickens199631
Hale185244
Barbour182738
Fayette178629
Butler174460
Cherokee165731
Henry159925
Monroe152421
Randolph146436
Washington142327
Clay130546
Crenshaw124045
Macon122337
Cleburne121825
Lamar120222
Lowndes115536
Wilcox107922
Bullock103528
Perry100018
Conecuh97922
Sumter90527
Greene77923
Coosa63618
Choctaw51924
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