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Study: China faces 'unstoppable' population decline by mid-century

China will face an "unstoppable" population decline over the coming decades, with fewer and fewer workers st...

Posted: Jan 8, 2019 10:42 AM
Updated: Jan 8, 2019 10:42 AM

China will face an "unstoppable" population decline over the coming decades, with fewer and fewer workers struggling to support an increasingly aging society, according to a report by a leading state-sponsored Chinese thinktank.

The report, which comes more than three years since China officially ended its controversial decades-long one-child policy, warns that the "the era of negative population growth is almost here," forecasting that the country's population will peak at 1.44 billion in 2029.

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The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences report suggests that the decline in fertility rates will lead to a decrease in overall population to 1990-era levels of 1.172 billion by 2065. World Bank data from 2017 showed a Chinese population of 1.386 billion.

The country's working-age population has stagnated, the report states, while its dependency ratio -- the number of working people in relation to non-working, largely children and retired people -- continues to skew.

"In theory, long-term population decline, especially accompanied with the increasing escalation of aging of population, is bound to bring very negative social and economic consequences," the report states, without elaborating on what these consequences could entail.

Experts have warned that as China's working age population shrinks so too will domestic consumption, which could have unintended consequences for the global economy, which has relied on China as a growth engine.

The report says that the country should start preparing and crafting policy to meet the challenges of the impending decline.

After decades of following a strict one-child policy, in 2015 Beijing announced that it would drop the controversial policy, which, for decades has been blamed for infanticide and forced sterilizations.

Under current family planning rules, the majority of Chinese couples are limited to two children, following the easing of the country's notorious policy, which was enacted in 2016.

However, the changes failed to produce a spike in the birth rate. In 2017, the country's total fertility rate was 1.6 children per woman, well below the 2.1 rate estimated to be necessary to keep the population steady.

The current, two-child restrictions look set to be further relaxed under a draft reform to the country's Civil Code, potentially allowing families to have multiple children for the first time in decades.

Despite the projected declines in the world's most populous nation, the United Nations expects the global population to continue to rise, albeit at a slowing rate.

A 2017 report from the world body estimated the 2017 number at 7.6 billion, which is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion by the end of the century.

India, the world's second-largest country by inhabitants, is expected to overtake China as the world's most populous by 2024, according to that report.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 319115

Reported Deaths: 7353
CountyCasesDeaths
DeSoto22246264
Hinds20612421
Harrison18342316
Rankin13855282
Jackson13666248
Madison10213224
Lee10050176
Jones8452167
Forrest7810153
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Lowndes6488149
Lamar632288
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Washington5412136
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Panola4659110
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Pearl River4591146
Marshall4571105
Warren4436121
Pontotoc424573
Union415576
Monroe4154135
Neshoba4059179
Lincoln4007111
Hancock385187
Leflore3514125
Tate342386
Sunflower339391
Pike3366110
Alcorn323272
Scott319274
Yazoo313971
Adams304785
Itawamba304777
Copiah299666
Coahoma298283
Simpson297889
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Clay187454
Stone187233
Tallahatchie179941
Clarke178980
Calhoun173732
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Smith164034
Walthall135147
Greene131633
Lawrence131024
Montgomery128643
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Perry126638
Amite125942
Carroll122330
Webster115032
Tunica107927
Jefferson Davis107633
Claiborne102930
Benton102225
Humphreys97533
Kemper96628
Franklin84923
Quitman81816
Choctaw79018
Wilkinson69332
Jefferson66228
Sharkey50817
Issaquena1696
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Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 547323

Reported Deaths: 11266
CountyCasesDeaths
Jefferson808021563
Mobile41925826
Madison35600522
Tuscaloosa26136458
Shelby25554254
Montgomery25067610
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Lee16234175
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Russell454441
Chilton4461116
Franklin430683
Covington4263122
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Escambia400280
Chambers3715123
Dallas3604156
Clarke352861
Marion3231106
Pike313978
Lawrence3121100
Winston283372
Bibb267364
Geneva256981
Marengo250565
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Butler223371
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Henry193843
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Monroe179141
Washington170339
Macon163051
Clay159559
Crenshaw155057
Cleburne152543
Lamar145837
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Perry108726
Sumter105732
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