Hyde-Smith projected to win Mississippi runoff

CNN projects that Mississippi voters have elected Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith to the the US Senate, defeating Democrat Mike Espy.

Posted: Nov 28, 2018 7:13 PM
Updated: Nov 28, 2018 7:25 PM

Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith has defeated Democrat Mike Espy in the Mississippi special Senate runoff election. The win capped off a tumultuous final few weeks of the campaign for Hyde-Smith who had a string of controversies, many of them touching on issues of race.

Yet, Hyde-Smith's win and the (relatively small) size of it makes a lot of sense when put in the context of this election cycle. Here are five takeaways for the Mississippi race and why it went down the way it did.

1. The result looked like what you expect in a blue wave climate

Mississippi is a really red state. President Donald Trump won it by 18 points in 2016. Therefore in a political environment in which Democrats are winning the national vote by high single digits, we wouldn't expect a Democrat to win a Senate seat in Mississippi. Rather, we'd expect them to come closer than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. That's exactly what happened.

When I used the results of other Senate races this year and controlled for incumbency and past presidential vote, a Hyde-Smith win of about 7 percentage points was predicted. That's right around the margin she ended up winning by.

2. Hyde-Smith's comments probably hurt her

Back in the primary when all the Democrats and Republicans ran against each other, the Republicans combined for 58% of the vote to the Democrats 42% of the vote. In our hyper-polarized political climate, you'd expect Hyde-Smith to capture pretty much all of the other Republican votes. Remember her Republican opponent in round one was the even more conservative Chris McDaniel, whose voters would not be inclined to vote for Espy.

Instead, Espy gained about 5 points in the runoff relative to his primary vote share of 41%. His performance in the state looks to be better than any Democratic Senate candidate in 30 years.

3. Trump helped Republicans in 2018 Senate races

It's not entirely clear whether Trump's last minute visit to Mississippi made any difference. What did help Hyde-Smith though is that Trump is well liked in the state.

An RRH Elections live interview poll that called landlines and cell-phones taken before the runoff had Trump's approval rating at 56% among runoff voters. (A Marist College poll last month had his approval rating at 56% among all voters.) Hyde-Smith, who tied herself very closely to the president, was winning pretty much all of those approvers. Tonight's results bear out that polling.

Put into the larger Senate picture, Republicans did well in solid red states. They were able to pick up a net gain of two seats in 2018 in part because there were five Democratic incumbents running in states Trump won by 19 points or more in 2016. Republicans won three of those five seats. They also held onto the two Republican seats that were thought to be at least vaguely competitive (Mississippi and Tennessee) in states that were about as red.

4. Democrats future hopes are among college educated voters in non-rural areas

The big story of election 2018 was how Democrats were able to win over traditionally Republican-leaning college educated voters. The exit polls reveal they won them by a 20 point margin in the 2018 House vote.

Mississippi was exactly the wrong place to see that in action. The state ranks 49th in the country for adults with a college degree.

Additionally, Democrats did very well in cleaning up in urban and suburban areas. For instance, there's not a single Republican representative in a congressional district that is completely urban.

Mississippi, though, ranks in the top 5 for population living in a rural area.

5. Doug Jones' Alabama victory happened in a unique circumstance

A lot of Democrats had hoped that deep red state Mississippi would turn out like deep red state Alabama after Hyde-Smith got herself into hot water.

Jones' opponent, Roy Moore, was disliked coming into the election. He considerably underperformed in his prior statewide race for state supreme court. Hyde-Smith won 61% of the vote in her prior statewide race for Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce. The accusations of sexual misconduct against Moore were the final straw, while Hyde-Smith had room to spare.

Perhaps as importantly, Trump's approval rating nationally was about 6 points lower during the Alabama election than it is now.

That's why we'll have to keep an eye on it heading into 2020. If his approval rating is where it is now, Republicans will suffer, though they won't lose in deep red areas. If it drops, a Trump defeat won't just bring him down, it could bring Republicans down even in the Deep South.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 93087

Reported Deaths: 2809
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hinds6956155
DeSoto539355
Harrison372772
Jackson337867
Madison320086
Rankin318875
Lee258567
Jones239978
Forrest238270
Washington217471
Lafayette207239
Lauderdale1994124
Bolivar179065
Oktibbeha174750
Lamar162134
Neshoba1534103
Panola144027
Sunflower141144
Lowndes139857
Warren138050
Leflore136280
Pontotoc122516
Pike120948
Monroe118365
Scott116125
Copiah115933
Coahoma112327
Holmes109158
Marshall107515
Lincoln106253
Grenada105335
Yazoo103629
Simpson101243
Union97824
Tate95137
Leake93937
Adams91736
Wayne87421
Pearl River86250
Marion84133
Prentiss80817
Covington80622
Alcorn76811
Newton75623
Itawamba75221
Tallahatchie74918
George74413
Winston72319
Tishomingo65737
Chickasaw65224
Tippah64216
Attala64125
Walthall59325
Clay57117
Hancock56121
Jasper54915
Noxubee54315
Clarke53539
Smith52114
Calhoun50612
Tunica47913
Montgomery45420
Claiborne45116
Lawrence42512
Yalobusha41614
Perry40617
Humphreys37315
Quitman3735
Stone35011
Greene34317
Webster33113
Jefferson Davis32511
Amite31210
Carroll31212
Wilkinson30217
Kemper28615
Sharkey26312
Jefferson2399
Benton2181
Franklin1893
Choctaw1785
Issaquena1033
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Confirmed Cases: 128818

Reported Deaths: 2284
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Jefferson18911337
Mobile13039289
Montgomery8628173
Madison750775
Tuscaloosa7180114
Lee570559
Shelby564550
Baldwin504749
Marshall382143
Etowah333447
Calhoun332039
Morgan318126
Houston269922
Elmore251947
DeKalb234619
St. Clair221335
Walker220780
Talladega205026
Limestone197319
Cullman183017
Franklin174128
Dallas173626
Russell17112
Autauga167324
Lauderdale164133
Colbert159326
Escambia155725
Blount154214
Jackson149411
Chilton147127
Dale132743
Covington130227
Coffee12708
Pike11519
Tallapoosa113183
Chambers112342
Clarke104917
Marion93728
Butler90838
Barbour8307
Marengo69919
Winston69912
Lowndes64527
Pickens63114
Bibb62810
Hale61228
Randolph60712
Bullock58514
Lawrence58220
Monroe5758
Geneva5634
Cherokee55516
Washington54413
Perry5376
Clay5367
Wilcox53011
Conecuh52311
Crenshaw52231
Macon47620
Henry4674
Fayette4189
Sumter41819
Lamar3452
Choctaw34412
Cleburne3206
Greene30015
Coosa1613
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