What I'm watching tonight

With 435 House races, 36 governor races and 35 Senate races -- not to mention all the ballot initiatives and...

Posted: Nov 7, 2018 4:47 AM
Updated: Nov 7, 2018 4:47 AM

With 435 House races, 36 governor races and 35 Senate races -- not to mention all the ballot initiatives and referenda -- it's impossible to watch everything. Unless you are very, very, very good at multitasking. Like, very good.

For the rest of us, it's very tough to know where to look. (Unless you are looking between 1 a.m. and 5 a.m. EST, in which case you need to watch me analyze the hell out of this election on CNN's airwaves.) To that end, I've put together a handy-dandy, hour-by-hour tipsheet of a small handful of races I will be watching to see which way the wind is blowing. (Remember, in the immortal words of Bob Dylan, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.)

Donald Trump

Elections and campaigns

Government and public administration

Government organizations - US

Political Figures - US

Political organizations

Politics

US Congress

US Democratic Party

US House of Representatives

US political parties

US Senate

These are grouped by when polls close. And, yes, there are LOTS more races you can watch. (Here's a broader preview from CNN's expert political team.) But these are the races I'm watching:

6 p.m.

Kentucky's 6th district: Donald Trump won this seat by 15 points in 2016. So if Amy McGrath (D) beats Rep. Andy Barr (R), it's an early but important sign that Democrats are very likely to have a very good night.

7 p.m.

Indiana Senate: This is one of five states that Trump won by double digits in 2016 in which a Democratic senator -- in this case Joe Donnelly -- is trying to get re-elected. Trump stopped in Fort Wayne in his final day of campaigning on Monday, so you know how important he thinks this one is. If Donnelly loses, it's hard to see how Democrats' already narrow path to the Senate majority doesn't disappear.

Virginia's 7th district: Rep. Dave Brat's stunning primary upset of then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R) in 2014 heralded that takeover of the party that Trump brought to full fruition two years later. But Trump only won this seat with 50.5% in 2016, and Brat may simply be too conservative (and too Trump-y) for this electorate.

7:30 p.m.

West Virginia Senate: The expectation is that Sen. Joe Manchin (D) will beat state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) despite the fact that Trump carried the state by 43 points. What's most telling here is margin: If this race gets called by the networks by 8:30 p.m. (or earlier), it's going to be a good night for Democrats. If it's close as the vote rolls in and at midnight it's still not called, it's a sign Republicans are doing better than we expected.

8 p.m.

Florida governor: To my mind, the race between Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) and Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) is the single most important race in the country. It's not just because Gillum is running as a representative of the new left -- non-white, unapologetically liberal -- or that DeSantis has hugged Trump as closely as any candidate in the country. It's also because whoever wins will be the highest-ranked elected official in the swingiest state headed into 2020, and will play a major role in how the state's legislative and congressional lines are drawn in 2021.

9 p.m.

Arizona Senate: If Democrats can re-elect Donnelly and Manchin, which means their hopes of taking the Senate majority still exist by the time polls close in Arizona, then the next domino they need to fall is Rep. Krysten Sinema (D) beating Rep. Martha McSally (R) in this open-seat race for Jeff Flake's seat. Sinema has led -- albeit narrowly -- for much of the race -- but Democrats have had very, very little success winning federal races in Arizona in recent years.

10 p.m.

Iowa governor: There's no question that Democrats are going to pick up governorships tonight. But how many? And where? Florida, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin may get more attention, but I am keeping a close eye on Iowa, where Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is trying to win a full term. Reynolds is a down-the-line establishment Republican. But will she be lumped into Trump's category? And if she loses, what does that say about the state of the electorate in this most crucial of early 2020 states?

11 p.m.

California's 21st district: Want to know if it's a total and complete Democratic wave? Watch this seat, where Rep. David Valadao (R) has done everything right -- except represent a seat that Hillary Clinton won by 15.5 points in 2016. If this election is a negative referendum on Trump of significant proportions, Valadao loses.

The Point: This is a MASSIVE night in our modern American history. What happens tonight (and as we count all the votes and sift through the results tomorrow) could change the direction of our government and our country for the next two years. At least.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 13260

Reported Deaths: 625
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hinds89324
Lauderdale67855
Madison65421
Scott58910
Neshoba51231
Forrest48034
Jones46713
DeSoto4616
Leake38410
Holmes36523
Rankin3496
Jackson29613
Copiah2784
Attala27014
Lincoln24320
Monroe24224
Leflore24025
Harrison2346
Newton2243
Lamar2194
Yazoo2152
Pearl River20327
Pike19611
Adams18615
Lowndes1607
Noxubee1586
Washington1535
Warren1506
Bolivar14010
Jasper1393
Oktibbeha13410
Smith13110
Covington1271
Chickasaw12612
Clarke12616
Kemper12510
Lafayette1233
Carroll11310
Wayne1090
Marion1088
Lee1045
Clay993
Winston981
Coahoma983
Lawrence901
Hancock8711
Simpson850
Itawamba857
Yalobusha824
Wilkinson829
Montgomery781
Sunflower773
Grenada752
Jefferson Davis712
Union715
Tippah7011
Marshall693
Panola622
Calhoun604
Tate591
Claiborne581
Humphreys537
Amite521
Walthall510
Tunica483
Perry462
Jefferson400
Prentiss383
Stone300
Choctaw292
Webster271
Pontotoc263
Franklin252
Tishomingo250
Quitman240
Tallahatchie241
George191
Alcorn151
Benton140
Greene71
Sharkey70
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Confirmed Cases: 14478

Reported Deaths: 551
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Mobile1996109
Jefferson161488
Montgomery118630
Marshall6499
Tuscaloosa50512
Lee49832
Franklin4476
Shelby43319
Tallapoosa39662
Butler34411
Chambers33623
Madison2964
Baldwin2749
Elmore2637
Etowah23610
DeKalb2213
Coffee2001
Walker1981
Dallas1973
Sumter1916
Lowndes18610
Houston1644
Morgan1621
Autauga1593
Calhoun1413
Choctaw1414
Pike1360
Colbert1362
Marengo1336
Hale1293
Russell1280
Lauderdale1282
Randolph1257
Wilcox1187
Marion11310
Bullock1111
Barbour1101
Clarke1022
St. Clair1021
Pickens934
Talladega912
Greene894
Chilton871
Dale830
Cullman760
Limestone740
Jackson692
Covington651
Washington645
Winston620
Macon602
Bibb591
Crenshaw582
Henry562
Blount491
Escambia433
Lawrence420
Coosa331
Geneva330
Cherokee332
Perry310
Monroe282
Clay272
Conecuh251
Lamar200
Cleburne131
Fayette110
Unassigned00
Tupelo
Clear
83° wxIcon
Hi: 88° Lo: 70°
Feels Like: 86°
Columbus
Clear
80° wxIcon
Hi: 90° Lo: 70°
Feels Like: 84°
Oxford
Clear
82° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 85°
Starkville
Clear
81° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 83°
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