8 big questions for Election Day

The election is today! The election is today!...

Posted: Nov 7, 2018 1:13 AM
Updated: Nov 7, 2018 1:13 AM

The election is today! The election is today!

And, yes, obviously I am super excited about it. I waited two years for today -- when we can see what the country thinks about President Donald Trump, the Republican majorities in Congress, the Democratic minority and the general state of the country.

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No election answers every question. And every election poses new questions we weren't even thinking about 24 hours earlier. But national elections are a pinch point in our long-running national experiment with democracy. They allow us to stop, look and think -- about where we were, where we're going and why, why, why people act and vote like they do. (Like I said, elections don't answer all of those questions.)

Below, eight questions I hope this election answers. And because you've got a lot going on -- the election is today! -- I've added just a single sentence (or two) after each for the sake of context.

1. How hard will women turn against Trump? In 2016, Trump won 41% of women. In the latest CNN poll, his approval rating is just 31% among women; and women choose a generic Democratic candidate for Congress over a generic Republican one by a massive 62%-35% margin.

2. Can Trump's all-base-all-the-time strategy work? Trump is closing the campaign on immigration with a dash of racial animus thrown in. That formula worked to turn his base out in 2016, but will it do the trick again?

3. Can Democrats win a working House majority? Most Democratic strategists would be perfectly happy to pick up just the 23 seats they need to retake the majority they lost in 2010. But such a slim majority would make the House totally ungovernable; to truly control the House, Democrats would need gains upward of 35-40 seats.

4. Do Republicans cling to the Senate? Two years ago, if I told any Republican Senate strategists that they would gain two Senate seats on November 6, 2018, most would call that a bad night. But expectations have been so lowered now that if Republicans actually add to their 51-49 current edge, Trump -- and Senate GOP leaders -- will seize on it as a MAJOR victory.

5. Did either side win the turnout war? Remember that in 2014, just 36.4% of people eligible to vote actually voted. That number was only marginally better in 2006 and 2010. We haven't had a midterm election in almost two decades where more than 4(ish) in 10 eligible voters actually voted; is this the year that breaks that bad trend?

6. Did Trump make a positive difference anywhere? A very smart Republican operative told me in the spring that polling showed that Trump attacking a candidate could do real damage, but Trump endorsing a candidate had much less influence in building that candidate up. Trump's visits in the final days on behalf of Mike Braun in Indiana, Josh Hawley in Missouri, Matt Rosendale in Montana and Rick Scott in Florida will put that theory to the test.

7. Is this the health care election? The immigration election? The economy election? Democrats want it to be the first. Trump wants it to be the second. Congressional Republicans want it to be the third. Are any of them right?

8. What will Donald Trump do next? Midterm elections are usually tough for the president's party. There's every indication this one will be that. Most re-position to reflect the lessons they learned (Clinton in 1995, Obama in 2011) and to get themselves right in the eyes of voters before their own re-election. But Trump isn't someone who admits he was ever wrong. How will he handle a loss?

The Point: This is a massive moment in our shared political history and future. What we learn today will inform not just the second half of Trump's first term, but also what Democrats do in response to the chief executive. And, most importantly, how the voters react to it all.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 515504

Reported Deaths: 10296
CountyCasesDeaths
Harrison34999558
DeSoto33360432
Hinds32743643
Jackson24906392
Rankin22565405
Lee16455245
Madison14954283
Jones14158248
Forrest13834260
Lauderdale12311323
Lowndes11357193
Lamar10693140
Pearl River9748244
Lafayette8868143
Hancock7849132
Washington7559169
Oktibbeha7229138
Monroe7068179
Pontotoc7033110
Warren6885178
Panola6791135
Neshoba6744210
Marshall6707142
Bolivar6468151
Union643598
Pike5942157
Alcorn5921107
Lincoln5540136
George510680
Prentiss508285
Tippah495683
Itawamba4884107
Scott478999
Tate4777117
Adams4776125
Leflore4749144
Copiah458195
Yazoo458092
Simpson4566117
Wayne443472
Covington434895
Sunflower4319106
Marion4295112
Coahoma4244110
Leake414191
Newton396182
Tishomingo386894
Grenada3789109
Stone366166
Jasper341266
Attala340490
Chickasaw318367
Winston318392
Clay312978
Clarke301695
Calhoun286850
Holmes272889
Smith270552
Yalobusha244947
Tallahatchie232353
Greene225149
Walthall222166
Lawrence220242
Perry214556
Amite210357
Webster206548
Noxubee188843
Montgomery182157
Carroll175441
Jefferson Davis174343
Tunica163539
Benton153139
Kemper145441
Choctaw137027
Claiborne134839
Humphreys132239
Franklin126530
Quitman107828
Wilkinson106139
Jefferson97134
Sharkey65321
Issaquena1957
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 847659

Reported Deaths: 16172
CountyCasesDeaths
Jefferson1163752005
Mobile743371381
Madison53434738
Shelby38413371
Baldwin38171589
Tuscaloosa36131643
Montgomery34571782
Lee25664264
Calhoun22622519
Morgan22527408
Etowah20059520
Marshall18821318
Houston17769426
St. Clair16946359
Limestone16192220
Cullman16140305
Elmore15948295
Lauderdale15055307
Talladega14244302
DeKalb13061271
Walker12138380
Blount10765193
Autauga10545157
Jackson10204195
Coffee9435192
Colbert9363210
Dale9038192
Tallapoosa7283202
Russell710165
Chilton7078170
Covington6967197
Escambia6962144
Franklin6364108
Chambers5795142
Marion5435130
Dallas5302210
Pike5128109
Clarke485686
Lawrence4845130
Winston4785110
Geneva4650136
Bibb435495
Barbour370180
Butler3444101
Marengo342793
Monroe338366
Randolph337767
Pickens334790
Fayette331485
Henry321066
Cherokee319964
Hale318889
Crenshaw261678
Washington256852
Cleburne255460
Lamar253555
Clay252069
Macon245767
Conecuh193562
Coosa185847
Wilcox178338
Lowndes178268
Bullock152745
Perry141840
Sumter139741
Greene130345
Choctaw94328
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