CNN poll: Close Senate races in Florida and Tennessee before Election Day

Florida voters are almost evenly split on both the state's Senate and gubernatorial contests, while the Sena...

Posted: Nov 2, 2018 6:31 AM
Updated: Nov 2, 2018 6:31 AM

Florida voters are almost evenly split on both the state's Senate and gubernatorial contests, while the Senate contest in Tennessee appears to be shifting in the Republican's favor, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS.

In Florida's Senate race, Bill Nelson is locked in a close race with Rick Scott, with 49% of likely voters supporting Nelson, the incumbent Democrat, and 47% behind Scott, the state's Republican governor. The gubernatorial race is similarly divided: 49% for Democrat Andrew Gillum and 48% for Republican Ron DeSantis. In both contests, the share of likely voters who say they could change their minds in the final days of the campaign stands in single digits.

Andrew Gillum

Continents and regions

Donald Trump

Elections (by type)

Elections and campaigns

Florida

Government and public administration

Government organizations - US

Marsha Blackburn

Midterm elections

North America

Phil Bredesen

Political Figures - US

Political organizations

Politics

Rick Scott

Southeastern United States

Tennessee

The Americas

United States

US Congress

US Federal elections

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US Republican Party

US Senate

US Senate elections

Voters and voting

RELATED: Full Florida poll results

The results reflect tighter contests than CNN's last poll in the state, which found both Democrats with an advantage. An average of other recent polling on each of the Florida races suggests a narrow Democratic tilt. A CNN poll of polls average assessing five recent live-interviewer telephone polls of the race -- including the new one from CNN -- finds Nelson topping Scott 48% to 45%, while Gillum edges DeSantis 49% to 45%.

In the new CNN poll, the decline in support for Gillum comes across demographic groups, but is sharpest among non-white voters (Gillum drops nine points among that group), those without college degrees (down seven points) and women (down six).

At the same time, DeSantis appears to have consolidated support among Republicans (94% of Republican voters now support him while fewer, 88%, backed him in the previous CNN poll) and has won over some independents (47% back him now compared to 42% in the last CNN poll).

In Tennessee, Republican Marsha Blackburn has overtaken former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen. In the new poll, 49% back Blackburn, 45% Bredesen. That reflects a reversal since a mid-September CNN poll found Bredesen with a five-point edge over Blackburn.

Men and independents are now less apt to say they support Bredesen, with the Democrat's backing among men dropping from 42% in September to 36% now. Among independents, Bredesen has gone from 54% support in September to 47% now.

RELATED: Full Tennessee poll results

Although few likely voters in the state say they could change their minds between now and Election Day, Bredesen does hold one advantage in the poll: he is viewed far more positively than Blackburn. While his favorability rating is net positive by 15 points, likely voters in Tennessee are about evenly divided on Blackburn, 48% see her favorably, 46% unfavorably.

Amid this bump for the Republican candidates in these two states, President Donald Trump also sees an uptick in his approval rating, especially among likely voters. In Florida, 47% of likely voters approve of the job Trump is doing as President, up from 43% in mid-October. A majority approve in Tennessee: 53% of likely voters say they approve of the way the President is handling his job, while 42% disapprove.

Health care tops the list of issues voters are considering when deciding their Senate vote in both states, though more so in Tennessee than in Florida. In Tennessee, 32% of likely voters call it their top issue, and 26% say so in Florida. The economy and immigration follow in both states.

Tennessee's governor race remains relatively uncompetitive with Bill Lee, the Republican, leading Democrat Karl Dean by 10 points among likely voters -- 52% to 42%, about the same as in September.

The CNN polls in Florida and Tennessee were conducted by SSRS October 24 through 29 among random statewide samples reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. In Florida, results for the full sample of 1,010 adults have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, for the subset of 781 likely voters it is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. In Tennessee, results for the full sample of 1,004 respondents have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. It is 4.3 for results among the 764 likely voters.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 261167

Reported Deaths: 5713
CountyCasesDeaths
DeSoto17561191
Hinds16687329
Harrison14050202
Rankin11102217
Jackson10729188
Lee9014143
Madison8495168
Jones6607114
Forrest6135122
Lauderdale6067192
Lowndes5490120
Lafayette511794
Lamar499865
Washington4904125
Bolivar4087109
Oktibbeha403581
Panola380981
Pontotoc374757
Monroe3651106
Warren3649103
Union353263
Marshall352069
Neshoba3464154
Pearl River3422105
Leflore3090109
Lincoln304287
Sunflower290373
Hancock288461
Tate279062
Alcorn270754
Pike268180
Itawamba266662
Scott256048
Yazoo253756
Prentiss251153
Copiah247649
Tippah247550
Coahoma245954
Simpson241471
Leake236167
Grenada222471
Marion220273
Covington219072
Adams212370
Wayne208432
Winston205870
George203539
Newton197346
Attala196461
Tishomingo193861
Chickasaw188444
Jasper177838
Holmes171368
Clay164237
Tallahatchie155635
Stone149525
Clarke144762
Calhoun139922
Smith127725
Yalobusha121134
Walthall114037
Greene112929
Noxubee112225
Montgomery111236
Carroll106422
Lawrence105617
Perry104031
Amite100826
Webster95424
Tunica88221
Claiborne87825
Jefferson Davis87727
Benton84823
Humphreys84224
Kemper80020
Quitman7049
Franklin69617
Choctaw62513
Wilkinson59625
Jefferson56520
Sharkey44817
Issaquena1606
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 436087

Reported Deaths: 6486
CountyCasesDeaths
Jefferson63969994
Mobile31211565
Madison27851208
Tuscaloosa21233271
Montgomery19698326
Shelby19093130
Baldwin16981188
Lee13036105
Morgan12526134
Etowah11987179
Calhoun11441206
Marshall10357123
Houston8886158
Limestone827876
Cullman8203108
Elmore8120104
DeKalb7828103
Lauderdale7798103
St. Clair7763125
Talladega6394111
Walker6002177
Jackson594644
Colbert545276
Blount543986
Autauga532761
Coffee456762
Dale406883
Franklin372448
Russell349212
Chilton342873
Covington336068
Escambia330144
Dallas312096
Tallapoosa3120107
Chambers301170
Clarke293336
Pike261131
Marion251558
Lawrence250752
Winston232742
Bibb221248
Geneva208746
Marengo206529
Pickens199031
Hale182742
Barbour179337
Fayette177029
Butler172459
Cherokee164330
Henry158224
Monroe151320
Randolph144336
Washington140127
Clay129146
Crenshaw122944
Macon120937
Cleburne120724
Lamar119721
Lowndes113736
Wilcox106622
Bullock102228
Perry99118
Conecuh96821
Sumter90026
Greene76823
Coosa63215
Choctaw51724
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