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CNN poll: Close Senate races in Florida and Tennessee before Election Day

Florida voters are almost evenly split on both the state's Senate and gubernatorial contests, while the Sena...

Posted: Nov 2, 2018 6:31 AM
Updated: Nov 2, 2018 6:31 AM

Florida voters are almost evenly split on both the state's Senate and gubernatorial contests, while the Senate contest in Tennessee appears to be shifting in the Republican's favor, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS.

In Florida's Senate race, Bill Nelson is locked in a close race with Rick Scott, with 49% of likely voters supporting Nelson, the incumbent Democrat, and 47% behind Scott, the state's Republican governor. The gubernatorial race is similarly divided: 49% for Democrat Andrew Gillum and 48% for Republican Ron DeSantis. In both contests, the share of likely voters who say they could change their minds in the final days of the campaign stands in single digits.

Andrew Gillum

Continents and regions

Donald Trump

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Elections and campaigns

Florida

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Government organizations - US

Marsha Blackburn

Midterm elections

North America

Phil Bredesen

Political Figures - US

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Politics

Rick Scott

Southeastern United States

Tennessee

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Voters and voting

RELATED: Full Florida poll results

The results reflect tighter contests than CNN's last poll in the state, which found both Democrats with an advantage. An average of other recent polling on each of the Florida races suggests a narrow Democratic tilt. A CNN poll of polls average assessing five recent live-interviewer telephone polls of the race -- including the new one from CNN -- finds Nelson topping Scott 48% to 45%, while Gillum edges DeSantis 49% to 45%.

In the new CNN poll, the decline in support for Gillum comes across demographic groups, but is sharpest among non-white voters (Gillum drops nine points among that group), those without college degrees (down seven points) and women (down six).

At the same time, DeSantis appears to have consolidated support among Republicans (94% of Republican voters now support him while fewer, 88%, backed him in the previous CNN poll) and has won over some independents (47% back him now compared to 42% in the last CNN poll).

In Tennessee, Republican Marsha Blackburn has overtaken former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen. In the new poll, 49% back Blackburn, 45% Bredesen. That reflects a reversal since a mid-September CNN poll found Bredesen with a five-point edge over Blackburn.

Men and independents are now less apt to say they support Bredesen, with the Democrat's backing among men dropping from 42% in September to 36% now. Among independents, Bredesen has gone from 54% support in September to 47% now.

RELATED: Full Tennessee poll results

Although few likely voters in the state say they could change their minds between now and Election Day, Bredesen does hold one advantage in the poll: he is viewed far more positively than Blackburn. While his favorability rating is net positive by 15 points, likely voters in Tennessee are about evenly divided on Blackburn, 48% see her favorably, 46% unfavorably.

Amid this bump for the Republican candidates in these two states, President Donald Trump also sees an uptick in his approval rating, especially among likely voters. In Florida, 47% of likely voters approve of the job Trump is doing as President, up from 43% in mid-October. A majority approve in Tennessee: 53% of likely voters say they approve of the way the President is handling his job, while 42% disapprove.

Health care tops the list of issues voters are considering when deciding their Senate vote in both states, though more so in Tennessee than in Florida. In Tennessee, 32% of likely voters call it their top issue, and 26% say so in Florida. The economy and immigration follow in both states.

Tennessee's governor race remains relatively uncompetitive with Bill Lee, the Republican, leading Democrat Karl Dean by 10 points among likely voters -- 52% to 42%, about the same as in September.

The CNN polls in Florida and Tennessee were conducted by SSRS October 24 through 29 among random statewide samples reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. In Florida, results for the full sample of 1,010 adults have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, for the subset of 781 likely voters it is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. In Tennessee, results for the full sample of 1,004 respondents have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. It is 4.3 for results among the 764 likely voters.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 482902

Reported Deaths: 9425
CountyCasesDeaths
Harrison33063488
Hinds31021589
DeSoto30610358
Jackson23687348
Rankin21340370
Lee14909220
Madison14166271
Jones13404227
Forrest13160240
Lauderdale11601305
Lowndes10443176
Lamar10214130
Pearl River9098221
Lafayette8241137
Hancock7514112
Washington7102150
Oktibbeha6964124
Monroe6514164
Neshoba6475201
Warren6464164
Pontotoc630393
Panola6250126
Marshall6126123
Bolivar6115144
Union574186
Pike5613136
Alcorn537290
Lincoln5303131
George471472
Scott459196
Leflore4476140
Prentiss446779
Tippah446480
Itawamba4444100
Adams4416116
Tate4394101
Simpson4335112
Wayne433066
Copiah431787
Yazoo423386
Covington415792
Sunflower4148104
Marion4099104
Leake397586
Coahoma3957100
Newton370875
Grenada3556104
Stone350860
Tishomingo336289
Attala325387
Jasper314162
Winston304691
Clay296473
Chickasaw287065
Clarke282190
Calhoun266141
Holmes262187
Smith250649
Yalobusha221047
Tallahatchie220450
Walthall211058
Greene209045
Lawrence206833
Perry199953
Amite198452
Webster196542
Noxubee178939
Montgomery172454
Jefferson Davis168342
Carroll162137
Tunica153334
Benton142535
Kemper138640
Choctaw127026
Claiborne126834
Humphreys126637
Franklin116728
Quitman103926
Wilkinson101936
Jefferson91333
Sharkey63020
Issaquena1926
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 789054

Reported Deaths: 14022
CountyCasesDeaths
Jefferson1115991765
Mobile708511234
Madison49865633
Shelby36274315
Baldwin36242495
Tuscaloosa33931548
Montgomery33190678
Lee22680220
Calhoun21211410
Morgan19816335
Etowah19300462
Marshall17680274
Houston16823386
St. Clair15442305
Cullman14602258
Limestone14581188
Elmore14480264
Lauderdale13520281
Talladega12958236
DeKalb12199237
Walker10588330
Blount9720157
Autauga9667137
Jackson9385158
Coffee8882175
Dale8609173
Colbert8534184
Tallapoosa6673181
Escambia6591121
Covington6452167
Chilton6385144
Russell607255
Franklin5795101
Chambers5416134
Marion4800120
Dallas4705189
Clarke463279
Pike462397
Geneva4413117
Winston425895
Lawrence4117108
Bibb409381
Barbour347270
Marengo326285
Monroe320053
Butler318290
Randolph305956
Pickens305274
Henry301858
Hale292685
Cherokee289855
Fayette279673
Washington245448
Crenshaw238470
Cleburne235851
Clay228565
Macon220158
Lamar197743
Conecuh182046
Lowndes170758
Coosa170235
Wilcox159736
Bullock149243
Perry136537
Sumter124536
Greene121443
Choctaw73427
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