Polls: Arizona, Nevada Senate races tightening

The Democratic Party's two best pickup opportunities in the Senate playing field are close contests in the final days of campaigning, according to new CNN Polls conducted by SSRS.

Posted: Nov 1, 2018 8:36 AM
Updated: Nov 1, 2018 8:36 AM

The Democratic Party's two best pickup opportunities in the Senate playing field are close contests in the final days of campaigning, according to new CNN Polls conducted by SSRS.

Democrat Kyrsten Sinema's lead over Republican Martha McSally in the Arizona Senate race has narrowed, from a 7-point advantage in September to a 51% to 47% split now -- a divide that is within the poll's margin of sampling error.

RELATED: Full Arizona poll results

In mid-September, a sizable 17% of likely voters said they hadn't yet made up their minds about this critical Senate contest, that's now dropped to just 5%. As voters have shifted, McSally gained ground on Sinema among women (while Sinema's support has held roughly even at 56%, McSally has climbed from 35% to 41% among women voters) and among independents (a 49% Sinema to 39% McSally divide in September stands at 52% Sinema to 44% McSally now).

As the campaign there has turned sharply negative, both candidates have seen their unfavorability ratings rise, with the percentage saying they have an unfavorable view of each candidate climbing 11 points. Views of Sinema remain more positive than negative (49% favorable to 41% unfavorable) while voters tilt narrowly negative on McSally (44% favorable to 47% unfavorable).

In Nevada, just three points separate Democrat Jacky Rosen and incumbent Republican Dean Heller, about the same as in September. Still, 10% of likely voters in the state say they haven't yet made a firm decision on the race.

RELATED: Full Nevada poll results

There's been almost no change in the Nevada survey in the demographic divides fueling voter preferences. There remains a sharp gender gap, with a majority of women behind Rosen and most men backing Heller. White voters with college degrees narrowly break toward Rosen, while whites without a degree favor Heller by a wide margin. Non-whites prefer Rosen by a better than 2-to-1 margin (64% to 28%).

And while Rosen's favorability rating remains slightly positive (46% have a positive view, 42% a negative one among likely voters, both positive and negative views have ticked up since September), Heller seems to have improved his marks since our last poll, from a net negative 46% unfavorable to 43% favorable read in September to a 47% favorable to 45% unfavorable mark now.

Donald Trump's approval rating has risen in both states. Likely voters in Nevada are about evenly split on the president, 49% approve of the way he's handling his job as president, 48% disapprove. That compares with a 51% disapprove to 45% approve mark in September. In Arizona, 47% of likely voters approve of Trump, 51% disapprove, an 8-point improvement on the approval side.

With Democratic campaigns across the country focusing on health care and Donald Trump focusing Republican candidates on immigration, the polls suggest voters' priorities have shifted along partisan lines in both states. Immigration now dominates on the right as the economy has faded as an issue among Republicans in both states. In Nevada, 42% of Republicans say immigration is the most important issue in their senate vote, while just 20% say it's the economy. In September, 34% chose the economy, 28% immigration. In Arizona, 50% of Republicans call immigration their top concern vs. 19% who choose the economy, those figures were 35% and 25% respectively in September.

Among Democrats, meanwhile, there is sharp consolidation around health care as the deciding factor in their Senate vote. About half of Democratic likely voters in each state now say it's their top concern (49% in Nevada and 50% in Arizona), an increase of 14 points in Nevada and 9 points in Arizona.

In both states, a majority of voters have historically cast their ballots before Election Day. In the last midterm election in 2014, 78% of Arizona votes were cast pre-election, as were 56% of Nevada ballots. In Arizona, the CNN survey finds a majority of likely voters say they have already cast their ballots, with those voters breaking toward Sinema, 54% to 43%. Voters who say they plan to cast their ballots on election day favor McSally, 59% to 39%. In Nevada, fewer voters have cast ballots thus far, about 41% of likely voters according to the poll. Among those who say they've already cast a ballot, Rosen has a narrow edge, 49% to 45%, while those who plan to vote on Election Day are about evenly split.

The race for Nevada's open governor's seat is a near-even split: 46% back the Democrat Steve Sisolak, 45% the Republican Adam Laxalt. In Arizona, incumbent Republican governor Doug Ducey leads Democrat David Garcia by a 7-point margin.

The CNN Polls in Arizona and Nevada were conducted by SSRS October 24 through 29 among random statewide samples reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. In Arizona, results for the full sample of 1,007 adults have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, for the subset of 702 likely voters it is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. In Nevada, results for the full sample of 998 respondents have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. It is 4.8 for results among the 622 likely voters.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 484675

Reported Deaths: 9480
CountyCasesDeaths
Harrison33151493
Hinds31184589
DeSoto30803365
Jackson23735349
Rankin21390373
Lee14963221
Madison14206272
Jones13430227
Forrest13199241
Lauderdale11623307
Lowndes10501176
Lamar10258130
Pearl River9151221
Lafayette8268137
Hancock7534113
Washington7144152
Oktibbeha6989124
Monroe6533167
Neshoba6489201
Warren6486166
Pontotoc632993
Panola6278127
Marshall6165126
Bolivar6129145
Union576089
Pike5626138
Alcorn540590
Lincoln5310132
George473572
Scott461596
Leflore4495140
Tippah448180
Prentiss447979
Itawamba4457100
Adams4429117
Tate4420103
Wayne434667
Simpson4339114
Copiah432988
Yazoo423686
Covington417192
Sunflower4155104
Marion4111104
Coahoma3986100
Leake398286
Newton372375
Grenada3565104
Stone351360
Tishomingo338389
Attala325987
Jasper316062
Winston305691
Clay297374
Chickasaw287866
Clarke283290
Calhoun267741
Holmes262887
Smith252249
Yalobusha224347
Tallahatchie221150
Walthall211758
Greene209945
Lawrence207034
Perry201054
Amite199452
Webster196942
Noxubee179339
Montgomery172954
Jefferson Davis168342
Carroll162537
Tunica154235
Benton143035
Kemper138840
Choctaw128826
Claiborne127134
Humphreys127038
Franklin116928
Quitman104227
Wilkinson102036
Jefferson91533
Sharkey63020
Issaquena1937
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 790648

Reported Deaths: 14025
CountyCasesDeaths
Jefferson1117431765
Mobile709021237
Madison50032633
Shelby36350315
Baldwin36278495
Tuscaloosa34034548
Montgomery33229678
Lee22712220
Calhoun21297410
Morgan19852335
Etowah19341462
Marshall17716274
Houston16862386
St. Clair15479305
Cullman14659258
Limestone14609188
Elmore14507264
Lauderdale13557281
Talladega13015236
DeKalb12214237
Walker10604330
Blount9735157
Autauga9691137
Jackson9400158
Coffee8934175
Dale8631173
Colbert8545184
Tallapoosa6688181
Escambia6599121
Covington6466167
Chilton6395144
Russell608755
Franklin5805101
Chambers5425134
Marion4818120
Dallas4713189
Clarke464079
Pike463297
Geneva4433117
Winston427395
Lawrence4124108
Bibb410281
Barbour347470
Marengo326485
Monroe320253
Butler318490
Randolph306656
Pickens306474
Henry302658
Hale293085
Cherokee290855
Fayette280373
Washington245548
Crenshaw238770
Cleburne236751
Clay229265
Macon220658
Lamar200443
Conecuh182046
Coosa170835
Lowndes170858
Wilcox159736
Bullock149543
Perry136537
Sumter124736
Greene121443
Choctaw73427
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