Polls: Arizona, Nevada Senate races tightening

The Democratic Party's two best pickup opportunities in the Senate playing field are close contests in the final days of campaigning, according to new CNN Polls conducted by SSRS.

Posted: Nov 1, 2018 8:36 AM
Updated: Nov 1, 2018 8:36 AM

The Democratic Party's two best pickup opportunities in the Senate playing field are close contests in the final days of campaigning, according to new CNN Polls conducted by SSRS.

Democrat Kyrsten Sinema's lead over Republican Martha McSally in the Arizona Senate race has narrowed, from a 7-point advantage in September to a 51% to 47% split now -- a divide that is within the poll's margin of sampling error.

RELATED: Full Arizona poll results

In mid-September, a sizable 17% of likely voters said they hadn't yet made up their minds about this critical Senate contest, that's now dropped to just 5%. As voters have shifted, McSally gained ground on Sinema among women (while Sinema's support has held roughly even at 56%, McSally has climbed from 35% to 41% among women voters) and among independents (a 49% Sinema to 39% McSally divide in September stands at 52% Sinema to 44% McSally now).

As the campaign there has turned sharply negative, both candidates have seen their unfavorability ratings rise, with the percentage saying they have an unfavorable view of each candidate climbing 11 points. Views of Sinema remain more positive than negative (49% favorable to 41% unfavorable) while voters tilt narrowly negative on McSally (44% favorable to 47% unfavorable).

In Nevada, just three points separate Democrat Jacky Rosen and incumbent Republican Dean Heller, about the same as in September. Still, 10% of likely voters in the state say they haven't yet made a firm decision on the race.

RELATED: Full Nevada poll results

There's been almost no change in the Nevada survey in the demographic divides fueling voter preferences. There remains a sharp gender gap, with a majority of women behind Rosen and most men backing Heller. White voters with college degrees narrowly break toward Rosen, while whites without a degree favor Heller by a wide margin. Non-whites prefer Rosen by a better than 2-to-1 margin (64% to 28%).

And while Rosen's favorability rating remains slightly positive (46% have a positive view, 42% a negative one among likely voters, both positive and negative views have ticked up since September), Heller seems to have improved his marks since our last poll, from a net negative 46% unfavorable to 43% favorable read in September to a 47% favorable to 45% unfavorable mark now.

Donald Trump's approval rating has risen in both states. Likely voters in Nevada are about evenly split on the president, 49% approve of the way he's handling his job as president, 48% disapprove. That compares with a 51% disapprove to 45% approve mark in September. In Arizona, 47% of likely voters approve of Trump, 51% disapprove, an 8-point improvement on the approval side.

With Democratic campaigns across the country focusing on health care and Donald Trump focusing Republican candidates on immigration, the polls suggest voters' priorities have shifted along partisan lines in both states. Immigration now dominates on the right as the economy has faded as an issue among Republicans in both states. In Nevada, 42% of Republicans say immigration is the most important issue in their senate vote, while just 20% say it's the economy. In September, 34% chose the economy, 28% immigration. In Arizona, 50% of Republicans call immigration their top concern vs. 19% who choose the economy, those figures were 35% and 25% respectively in September.

Among Democrats, meanwhile, there is sharp consolidation around health care as the deciding factor in their Senate vote. About half of Democratic likely voters in each state now say it's their top concern (49% in Nevada and 50% in Arizona), an increase of 14 points in Nevada and 9 points in Arizona.

In both states, a majority of voters have historically cast their ballots before Election Day. In the last midterm election in 2014, 78% of Arizona votes were cast pre-election, as were 56% of Nevada ballots. In Arizona, the CNN survey finds a majority of likely voters say they have already cast their ballots, with those voters breaking toward Sinema, 54% to 43%. Voters who say they plan to cast their ballots on election day favor McSally, 59% to 39%. In Nevada, fewer voters have cast ballots thus far, about 41% of likely voters according to the poll. Among those who say they've already cast a ballot, Rosen has a narrow edge, 49% to 45%, while those who plan to vote on Election Day are about evenly split.

The race for Nevada's open governor's seat is a near-even split: 46% back the Democrat Steve Sisolak, 45% the Republican Adam Laxalt. In Arizona, incumbent Republican governor Doug Ducey leads Democrat David Garcia by a 7-point margin.

The CNN Polls in Arizona and Nevada were conducted by SSRS October 24 through 29 among random statewide samples reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. In Arizona, results for the full sample of 1,007 adults have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, for the subset of 702 likely voters it is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. In Nevada, results for the full sample of 998 respondents have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. It is 4.8 for results among the 622 likely voters.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 245847

Reported Deaths: 5356
CountyCasesDeaths
DeSoto16717168
Hinds15748310
Harrison12806188
Rankin10334204
Jackson9996172
Lee8666135
Madison7994158
Jones6112108
Forrest5826117
Lauderdale5672174
Lowndes5186106
Lafayette482792
Lamar471162
Washington4700122
Bolivar3915105
Oktibbeha384279
Panola357274
Pontotoc356552
Monroe3463101
Union334755
Warren334692
Marshall333264
Neshoba3310149
Pearl River313891
Leflore2969104
Lincoln290185
Sunflower275868
Tate264759
Alcorn257850
Itawamba257058
Pike254876
Hancock246957
Prentiss240047
Scott238743
Copiah235649
Yazoo235054
Tippah233845
Simpson230166
Leake226764
Coahoma219054
Grenada213970
Covington207171
Marion203371
Adams200065
Winston196260
George195937
Wayne193029
Attala190958
Newton185142
Chickasaw179943
Tishomingo179059
Holmes167467
Jasper163533
Clay155632
Stone138818
Tallahatchie137033
Clarke135160
Calhoun132021
Smith117322
Yalobusha112534
Walthall110536
Noxubee108922
Greene108229
Montgomery107134
Carroll102320
Lawrence99817
Perry98631
Amite95725
Webster90024
Claiborne84125
Tunica84021
Jefferson Davis82925
Humphreys80324
Benton79722
Kemper75620
Quitman6678
Franklin64613
Choctaw59412
Wilkinson57424
Jefferson52019
Sharkey42317
Issaquena1576
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Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 414583

Reported Deaths: 5945
CountyCasesDeaths
Jefferson60842887
Mobile29590538
Madison26466183
Tuscaloosa20537267
Montgomery18562304
Shelby18181112
Baldwin15841177
Lee1212097
Morgan12002112
Etowah11488142
Calhoun10863197
Marshall10048106
Houston8405123
Cullman792294
Limestone785073
Elmore7670101
DeKalb757282
St. Clair7417120
Lauderdale740282
Talladega6036108
Walker5834176
Jackson571937
Colbert522270
Blount521980
Autauga507555
Coffee431456
Dale388278
Franklin362145
Chilton332965
Covington325567
Russell318910
Escambia309842
Dallas297988
Chambers275769
Clarke272933
Tallapoosa2591107
Pike245829
Lawrence239345
Marion238649
Winston222535
Bibb211347
Geneva196331
Marengo196329
Pickens195331
Hale172542
Barbour169636
Butler166958
Fayette164026
Cherokee158330
Henry149219
Monroe143617
Randolph137635
Washington135426
Clay124446
Crenshaw117444
Lamar116819
Cleburne115123
Macon111935
Lowndes107935
Wilcox99921
Bullock97128
Perry95019
Conecuh92820
Sumter89126
Greene75123
Coosa59814
Choctaw50824
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