Polls: Arizona, Nevada Senate races tightening

The Democratic Party's two best pickup opportunities in the Senate playing field are close contests in the final days of campaigning, according to new CNN Polls conducted by SSRS.

Posted: Nov 1, 2018 8:36 AM
Updated: Nov 1, 2018 8:36 AM

The Democratic Party's two best pickup opportunities in the Senate playing field are close contests in the final days of campaigning, according to new CNN Polls conducted by SSRS.

Democrat Kyrsten Sinema's lead over Republican Martha McSally in the Arizona Senate race has narrowed, from a 7-point advantage in September to a 51% to 47% split now -- a divide that is within the poll's margin of sampling error.

RELATED: Full Arizona poll results

In mid-September, a sizable 17% of likely voters said they hadn't yet made up their minds about this critical Senate contest, that's now dropped to just 5%. As voters have shifted, McSally gained ground on Sinema among women (while Sinema's support has held roughly even at 56%, McSally has climbed from 35% to 41% among women voters) and among independents (a 49% Sinema to 39% McSally divide in September stands at 52% Sinema to 44% McSally now).

As the campaign there has turned sharply negative, both candidates have seen their unfavorability ratings rise, with the percentage saying they have an unfavorable view of each candidate climbing 11 points. Views of Sinema remain more positive than negative (49% favorable to 41% unfavorable) while voters tilt narrowly negative on McSally (44% favorable to 47% unfavorable).

In Nevada, just three points separate Democrat Jacky Rosen and incumbent Republican Dean Heller, about the same as in September. Still, 10% of likely voters in the state say they haven't yet made a firm decision on the race.

RELATED: Full Nevada poll results

There's been almost no change in the Nevada survey in the demographic divides fueling voter preferences. There remains a sharp gender gap, with a majority of women behind Rosen and most men backing Heller. White voters with college degrees narrowly break toward Rosen, while whites without a degree favor Heller by a wide margin. Non-whites prefer Rosen by a better than 2-to-1 margin (64% to 28%).

And while Rosen's favorability rating remains slightly positive (46% have a positive view, 42% a negative one among likely voters, both positive and negative views have ticked up since September), Heller seems to have improved his marks since our last poll, from a net negative 46% unfavorable to 43% favorable read in September to a 47% favorable to 45% unfavorable mark now.

Donald Trump's approval rating has risen in both states. Likely voters in Nevada are about evenly split on the president, 49% approve of the way he's handling his job as president, 48% disapprove. That compares with a 51% disapprove to 45% approve mark in September. In Arizona, 47% of likely voters approve of Trump, 51% disapprove, an 8-point improvement on the approval side.

With Democratic campaigns across the country focusing on health care and Donald Trump focusing Republican candidates on immigration, the polls suggest voters' priorities have shifted along partisan lines in both states. Immigration now dominates on the right as the economy has faded as an issue among Republicans in both states. In Nevada, 42% of Republicans say immigration is the most important issue in their senate vote, while just 20% say it's the economy. In September, 34% chose the economy, 28% immigration. In Arizona, 50% of Republicans call immigration their top concern vs. 19% who choose the economy, those figures were 35% and 25% respectively in September.

Among Democrats, meanwhile, there is sharp consolidation around health care as the deciding factor in their Senate vote. About half of Democratic likely voters in each state now say it's their top concern (49% in Nevada and 50% in Arizona), an increase of 14 points in Nevada and 9 points in Arizona.

In both states, a majority of voters have historically cast their ballots before Election Day. In the last midterm election in 2014, 78% of Arizona votes were cast pre-election, as were 56% of Nevada ballots. In Arizona, the CNN survey finds a majority of likely voters say they have already cast their ballots, with those voters breaking toward Sinema, 54% to 43%. Voters who say they plan to cast their ballots on election day favor McSally, 59% to 39%. In Nevada, fewer voters have cast ballots thus far, about 41% of likely voters according to the poll. Among those who say they've already cast a ballot, Rosen has a narrow edge, 49% to 45%, while those who plan to vote on Election Day are about evenly split.

The race for Nevada's open governor's seat is a near-even split: 46% back the Democrat Steve Sisolak, 45% the Republican Adam Laxalt. In Arizona, incumbent Republican governor Doug Ducey leads Democrat David Garcia by a 7-point margin.

The CNN Polls in Arizona and Nevada were conducted by SSRS October 24 through 29 among random statewide samples reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. In Arizona, results for the full sample of 1,007 adults have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, for the subset of 702 likely voters it is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. In Nevada, results for the full sample of 998 respondents have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. It is 4.8 for results among the 622 likely voters.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 115763

Reported Deaths: 3263
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hinds7973177
DeSoto703979
Harrison522384
Jackson457884
Rankin394086
Madison383194
Lee357380
Forrest304678
Jones292484
Washington258399
Lafayette250443
Lauderdale2478135
Lamar225538
Oktibbeha202454
Bolivar201677
Neshoba1849111
Lowndes179962
Panola170040
Leflore167187
Sunflower162349
Warren154855
Monroe150673
Pontotoc147220
Marshall143129
Lincoln140157
Pike138456
Copiah137536
Scott125429
Coahoma124937
Grenada122638
Yazoo122234
Simpson121549
Union118825
Tate116839
Leake115041
Holmes114760
Itawamba113925
Pearl River113660
Adams108544
Prentiss106120
Wayne101722
Alcorn100112
George99218
Covington97527
Marion95042
Tippah90322
Newton86627
Chickasaw85526
Tallahatchie84526
Winston84121
Hancock84028
Tishomingo81241
Attala79426
Clarke75851
Clay69321
Jasper68717
Walthall63927
Calhoun62612
Noxubee59817
Smith59416
Montgomery54923
Yalobusha54514
Claiborne53716
Tunica53517
Lawrence51814
Perry49423
Carroll49312
Greene47818
Stone47514
Humphreys43816
Amite42513
Quitman4206
Jefferson Davis41011
Webster37613
Benton3416
Wilkinson33820
Kemper32615
Sharkey28514
Jefferson27610
Franklin2423
Choctaw2086
Issaquena1074
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Confirmed Cases: 158701

Reported Deaths: 2680
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Jefferson23292377
Mobile16916315
Tuscaloosa10345140
Montgomery10250197
Madison935096
Shelby739063
Baldwin665869
Lee654665
Calhoun459961
Marshall439550
Etowah428551
Houston417034
Morgan416435
DeKalb342629
Elmore320853
St. Clair295542
Limestone287230
Walker279492
Talladega266435
Cullman248024
Lauderdale229442
Jackson215915
Autauga205931
Franklin205531
Colbert202132
Russell19493
Blount193225
Chilton188432
Dallas186627
Coffee177111
Dale176351
Covington174729
Escambia172730
Clarke135217
Chambers135044
Pike134113
Tallapoosa132987
Marion108129
Barbour10339
Marengo101922
Butler101140
Winston92913
Geneva9067
Lawrence85832
Pickens85218
Bibb84014
Randolph82716
Hale76830
Washington74912
Clay74412
Cherokee73814
Henry7176
Lowndes71328
Bullock64917
Monroe64610
Crenshaw60830
Perry5926
Fayette57713
Cleburne5698
Wilcox56812
Conecuh56113
Macon53620
Lamar4965
Sumter47221
Choctaw39212
Greene34216
Coosa2043
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