CNN poll: Cruz leads O'Rourke with three weeks to go

Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz appears well-positioned for re-election over his Democratic challenger Rep. B...

Posted: Oct 17, 2018 8:01 AM
Updated: Oct 17, 2018 8:01 AM

Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz appears well-positioned for re-election over his Democratic challenger Rep. Beto O'Rourke, topping him 52% to 45% among likely voters, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds.

Just 9% of likely Texas voters say there's a chance they could change their mind about the Senate contest before Election Day, although O'Rourke's voters are more apt to be locked in to their choice (92% say their minds are made up) than are Cruz's backers (87% say they've made a final decision).

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The two candidates are set to debate Tuesday night, and O'Rourke will participate in a CNN town hall later this week. O'Rourke's challenge has drawn tens of millions in donations, forcing Republicans to play defense in one of the few Republican Senate seats in play this election cycle. President Donald Trump even plans to host a rally for his former rival's benefit.

The President could be an asset among those planning to vote in Texas. Trump's approval rating is net negative statewide, with 50% of adults disapproving of his handling of the presidency vs. 41% who approve. Among likely voters, however, 49% approve of Trump's job performance and 48% disapprove.

The gender gap in this race is tighter than what CNN has measured in nationwide polling on the House generic ballot and in other Senate contests. In four other critical battlegrounds, the gender gap has been 30 points or higher in three states, and stood at 21 in the fourth. In this contest, it's a narrower 18 points. O'Rourke holds just a 2-point edge among women, the smallest for a Democrat among women in the states CNN has polled so far. The next closest is Jacky Rosen's 14-point lead among women in Nevada earlier this month in her race against Republican Sen. Dean Heller.

In Texas, the race gap appears more meaningful than the gender gap. Latino voters break sharply in O'Rourke's favor, 62% to 35%, while white voters favor Cruz by a 2-to-1 margin, 66% to 33%.

Likely voters in Texas place immigration at the top of their issue list: 26% call it the most important issue in deciding their vote, while 23% call the economy their top priority. Cruz leads among both sets of voters. O'Rourke has a wide edge among the 19% of voters who call health care their top issue. Eleven percent say their top issue is national security, 8% gun policy and 5% the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election.

Both Senate candidates hold net-positive favorability ratings with voters in Texas generally, and that holds among those most likely to vote. Cruz is viewed positively by 51% of Texas voters, 41% have an unfavorable view, and O'Rourke is seen favorably by 45%, with 36% holding a negative opinion. Cruz fares better among his own partisans (92% favorable among Texas Republicans) than O'Rourke does with Democrats in the state (81% favorable among Democrats).

The poll also finds Texas Gov. Greg Abbott standing well ahead of his Democratic challenger in the poll -- 57% of likely voters support Abbott with 39% for Lupe Valdez.

The CNN poll in Texas was conducted by SSRS October 9 through 13 among random statewide samples reached on landlines or cell phones by a live interviewer. Results for the full sample of 1,004 adults have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. For the subset of 862 registered voters, it is plus or minus 4.1, and for the 716 likely voters, plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 112123

Reported Deaths: 3223
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hinds7796173
DeSoto670178
Harrison484483
Jackson435081
Rankin383786
Madison373993
Lee344979
Forrest296377
Jones283782
Washington252197
Lafayette242642
Lauderdale2376131
Lamar217138
Bolivar198377
Oktibbeha195854
Neshoba1814111
Lowndes174962
Panola166337
Leflore160787
Sunflower157649
Warren152755
Monroe145972
Pontotoc143819
Pike137256
Lincoln135555
Copiah135036
Marshall134826
Scott123829
Coahoma123436
Grenada120038
Yazoo119333
Simpson118649
Union115225
Holmes113560
Leake113340
Tate113239
Itawamba110424
Pearl River108958
Adams104343
Prentiss102619
Wayne98721
Alcorn96012
George93917
Marion92942
Covington92525
Tippah85921
Newton84427
Chickasaw82625
Winston82221
Tallahatchie81825
Tishomingo79341
Hancock78127
Attala77626
Clarke72349
Clay67621
Jasper67417
Walthall63327
Calhoun61412
Noxubee59617
Smith58316
Claiborne53216
Montgomery52923
Tunica52217
Lawrence49914
Yalobusha49314
Perry48122
Carroll46312
Greene45518
Stone45014
Amite41713
Quitman4146
Humphreys41216
Jefferson Davis39811
Webster36613
Wilkinson33020
Kemper32015
Benton3154
Sharkey27814
Jefferson27010
Franklin2373
Choctaw2036
Issaquena1063
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Confirmed Cases: 153016

Reported Deaths: 2633
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Jefferson22563372
Mobile14335314
Tuscaloosa10023133
Montgomery9759196
Madison904893
Shelby709960
Lee644966
Baldwin640569
Marshall428248
Calhoun412759
Etowah405749
Morgan396833
Houston364632
DeKalb319628
Elmore310752
St. Clair282142
Limestone270828
Walker268892
Talladega258435
Cullman227623
Lauderdale208740
Autauga201029
Jackson200915
Franklin199731
Colbert192228
Russell19053
Dallas185627
Blount184824
Chilton181731
Escambia171328
Coffee16669
Covington166029
Dale163451
Pike130512
Chambers130143
Tallapoosa128686
Clarke127117
Marion104729
Butler99840
Barbour9889
Marengo97221
Winston90413
Geneva8417
Pickens80517
Lawrence80031
Randolph79814
Bibb79114
Hale74529
Cherokee72214
Clay71912
Lowndes70127
Henry6376
Bullock63517
Monroe6319
Washington62212
Crenshaw59330
Perry5806
Wilcox55912
Conecuh55713
Fayette55312
Cleburne5287
Macon52820
Sumter46721
Lamar4565
Choctaw38712
Greene33916
Coosa1973
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