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The Forecast: Democrats have a problem with Latino voters

House forecast: Democrats will win...

Posted: Oct 16, 2018 3:04 PM
Updated: Oct 16, 2018 3:04 PM

House forecast: Democrats will win 228 seats (and the House majority) while Republicans will win just 207 seats. A Democratic win of 204 seats and 263 seats is within the margin of error.

Senate forecast: Republicans will hold 52 seats (and maintain control of the Senate) next Congress while Democrats will hold just 48. Anything between Republicans holding 47 seats and 57 seats is within the margin of error.

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Polls show that Democratic voters are revved up for November. There is one exception to that rule, however: Latinos. They seem far less enthusiastic than pretty much every other part of the Democratic base, and our forecast shows Democrats have a problem in Latino heavy districts.

I examined the five congressional districts in the country currently controlled by Republicans and where at least 50% of the citizen voting age population is Latino. These districts are not surprisingly in California, Florida and Texas.

In every single one of them, the Democrats are underperforming Hillary Clinton's numbers in the 2016 election.

California 21: Clinton took this district by 16 points. Democrat TJ Cox is forecasted to lose by 7 points.

Florida 25: Clinton lost the district by just 2 points. Democrat Mary Barzee Flores is forecasted to lose by 8 points.

Florida 26: Clinton won the district by 16 points. Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is forecasted to win by less a point.

Florida 27: Clinton won the district by an astounding 20 points. Donna Shalala is forecasted to win by less than 4 points.

Texas 23: Clinton won here by 3 points. Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones is forecasted to lose by 6 points.

All told, the Democratic candidates are underperforming Clinton by an average of 14 points in districts where at least 50% of the citizen voting age population is Latino.

Part of the reason Democrats are underperforming has to do with low turnout among Latinos. In a September poll of Texas' 23rd District by Siena College and The New York Times, Latinos were projected to make up 49% of 2018 voters. They were 65% of all registered voters in the district. An analysis by Politico of all the Siena College/New York Times polls indicates that this split is indicative of districts nationally.

It also seems likely that some Latinos who voted for Clinton in these districts are pulling the lever for Republican candidates in 2018. In a recent Mason-Dixon poll of Florida's 27th Congressional District, non-Cuban Latino and Cubans were 20 to 40 points more likely to vote Republican this year for Congress than they were two years ago for president.

Now, it should be noted that these districts have historically been at least more Republican than the 2016 presidential election would indicate. In all of them, the weighted average partisanship (which takes into account past state and local elections in addition to the presidential election results) is more Republican than the 2016 presidential vote.

The ability of the Republican candidates in these districts to continue that divergence (between voting patterns for 2016 president and the House) should at least be partially attributed to these candidates running towards the center.

Of the four incumbent Republicans running in these five districts, Rep. Will Hurd of Texas has the most conservative voting record. He's still more moderate than about 75% of the Republican caucus. Additionally, he's been an outspoken critic of Trump.

These moderate records have, at a minimum, probably quelled the anger of some Clinton voters to the extent that they don't feel the need to show up in November.

Now, it's not a guarantee that Democrats will come away empty-handed from majority Latino districts that are currently represented by a Republican. They'll probably win Florida's 26th and/or 27th district.

The fact that is far from a guarantee, however, speaks to the major problem Democrats seem to have with Latino voters heading into the 2018 midterms.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 256827

Reported Deaths: 5638
CountyCasesDeaths
DeSoto17257180
Hinds16331322
Harrison13567194
Rankin10804212
Jackson10453184
Lee8864141
Madison8314164
Jones6434112
Forrest6009120
Lauderdale5902186
Lowndes5405116
Lafayette499193
Lamar488565
Washington4803124
Bolivar3997109
Oktibbeha395381
Panola372379
Pontotoc367853
Monroe3558105
Warren354898
Union345960
Marshall344066
Neshoba3396152
Pearl River3301100
Leflore3041107
Lincoln298085
Sunflower286671
Hancock274459
Tate273162
Alcorn265453
Itawamba263759
Pike263778
Scott248046
Yazoo247056
Prentiss246552
Tippah243050
Copiah242749
Coahoma241054
Simpson236467
Leake231765
Grenada219471
Covington214672
Marion213073
Adams207070
Wayne202932
Winston201666
George199839
Attala194259
Newton193444
Tishomingo189361
Chickasaw185044
Jasper172736
Holmes168767
Clay159833
Stone144721
Tallahatchie141934
Clarke139862
Calhoun136521
Smith121424
Yalobusha117834
Walthall112336
Noxubee110822
Greene110429
Montgomery109834
Carroll104821
Lawrence102917
Perry102631
Amite98426
Webster92824
Tunica87321
Claiborne86625
Jefferson Davis85326
Humphreys83124
Benton82023
Kemper77620
Quitman6968
Franklin66715
Choctaw60913
Wilkinson58725
Jefferson54919
Sharkey43117
Issaquena1596
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 426543

Reported Deaths: 6126
CountyCasesDeaths
Jefferson62752920
Mobile30551554
Madison27303186
Tuscaloosa20835267
Montgomery19192305
Shelby18693114
Baldwin16513183
Lee12603101
Morgan12321113
Etowah11805168
Calhoun11206200
Marshall10236107
Houston8681148
Cullman8094105
Limestone807474
Elmore7923101
DeKalb771597
Lauderdale763183
St. Clair7599120
Talladega6224108
Walker5930174
Jackson583741
Colbert535473
Blount532083
Autauga522755
Coffee446256
Dale399781
Franklin368148
Chilton337865
Russell335910
Covington330168
Escambia321342
Dallas305196
Chambers288669
Clarke283133
Tallapoosa2630107
Pike251329
Marion247350
Lawrence245247
Winston229035
Bibb217047
Geneva203335
Marengo200829
Pickens196931
Hale177442
Barbour173836
Fayette171226
Butler170758
Cherokee160930
Henry155021
Monroe147317
Randolph141535
Washington138326
Clay127045
Crenshaw120244
Cleburne118423
Lamar118419
Macon116835
Lowndes111535
Wilcox103621
Bullock99728
Perry98219
Conecuh95120
Sumter89526
Greene76223
Coosa60515
Choctaw51524
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