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Latino voters could help some Republicans

CNN's Harry Enten gives The Forecast on how the Latino vote could help some Republicans fend off Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections.

Posted: Oct 17, 2018 4:17 AM
Updated: Oct 17, 2018 4:40 AM

House forecast: Democrats will win 228 seats (and the House majority) while Republicans will win just 207 seats. A Democratic win of 204 seats and 263 seats is within the margin of error.

Senate forecast: Republicans will hold 52 seats (and maintain control of the Senate) next Congress while Democrats will hold just 48. Anything between Republicans holding 47 seats and 57 seats is within the margin of error.

Polls show that Democratic voters are revved up for November. There is one exception to that rule, however: Latinos. They seem far less enthusiastic than pretty much every other part of the Democratic base, and our forecast shows Democrats have a problem in Latino heavy districts.

I examined the five congressional districts in the country currently controlled by Republicans and where at least 50% of the citizen voting age population is Latino. These districts are not surprisingly in California, Florida and Texas.

In every single one of them, the Democrats are underperforming Hillary Clinton's numbers in the 2016 election.

California 21: Clinton took this district by 16 points. Democrat TJ Cox is forecasted to lose by 7 points.

Florida 25: Clinton lost the district by just 2 points. Democrat Mary Barzee Flores is forecasted to lose by 8 points.

Florida 26: Clinton won the district by 16 points. Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is forecasted to win by less a point.

Florida 27: Clinton won the district by an astounding 20 points. Donna Shalala is forecasted to win by less than 4 points.

Texas 23: Clinton won here by 3 points. Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones is forecasted to lose by 6 points.

All told, the Democratic candidates are underperforming Clinton by an average of 14 points in districts where at least 50% of the citizen voting age population is Latino.

Part of the reason Democrats are underperforming has to do with low turnout among Latinos. In a September poll of Texas' 23rd District by Siena College and The New York Times, Latinos were projected to make up 49% of 2018 voters. They were 65% of all registered voters in the district. An analysis by Politico of all the Siena College/New York Times polls indicates that this split is indicative of districts nationally.

It also seems likely that some Latinos who voted for Clinton in these districts are pulling the lever for Republican candidates in 2018. In a recent Mason-Dixon poll of Florida's 27th Congressional District, non-Cuban Latino and Cubans were 20 to 40 points more likely to vote Republican this year for Congress than they were two years ago for president.

Now, it should be noted that these districts have historically been at least more Republican than the 2016 presidential election would indicate. In all of them, the weighted average partisanship (which takes into account past state and local elections in addition to the presidential election results) is more Republican than the 2016 presidential vote.

The ability of the Republican candidates in these districts to continue that divergence (between voting patterns for 2016 president and the House) should at least be partially attributed to these candidates running towards the center.

Of the four incumbent Republicans running in these five districts, Rep. Will Hurd of Texas has the most conservative voting record. He's still more moderate than about 75% of the Republican caucus. Additionally, he's been an outspoken critic of Trump.

These moderate records have, at a minimum, probably quelled the anger of some Clinton voters to the extent that they don't feel the need to show up in November.

Now, it's not a guarantee that Democrats will come away empty-handed from majority Latino districts that are currently represented by a Republican. They'll probably win Florida's 26th and/or 27th district.

The fact that is far from a guarantee, however, speaks to the major problem Democrats seem to have with Latino voters heading into the 2018 midterms.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 498560

Reported Deaths: 9939
CountyCasesDeaths
Harrison34150535
DeSoto31916399
Hinds31878624
Jackson24352379
Rankin21928388
Lee15450235
Madison14547279
Jones13789241
Forrest13428250
Lauderdale11944315
Lowndes10966185
Lamar10491135
Pearl River9454237
Lafayette8462138
Hancock7703126
Washington7371157
Oktibbeha7118130
Monroe6740174
Warren6656176
Pontotoc6620102
Neshoba6613206
Panola6466131
Marshall6398132
Bolivar6268146
Union596794
Pike5794152
Alcorn5646101
Lincoln5421134
George494979
Scott471198
Tippah466081
Prentiss464881
Leflore4631144
Itawamba4605105
Adams4577119
Tate4553109
Copiah445692
Simpson4423116
Yazoo440386
Wayne438572
Covington427894
Marion4222107
Sunflower4217104
Coahoma4127104
Leake407687
Newton381079
Grenada3700108
Stone358764
Tishomingo358091
Attala330589
Jasper328565
Winston313491
Clay306775
Chickasaw297867
Clarke290694
Calhoun278145
Holmes267287
Smith262450
Yalobusha232847
Tallahatchie225851
Walthall217763
Greene216048
Lawrence211440
Perry204855
Amite204055
Webster201845
Noxubee185940
Montgomery179356
Jefferson Davis170942
Carroll168238
Tunica159039
Benton147538
Kemper141341
Choctaw133026
Claiborne131637
Humphreys129038
Franklin119128
Quitman106328
Wilkinson104539
Jefferson94234
Sharkey64020
Issaquena1937
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 814363

Reported Deaths: 15179
CountyCasesDeaths
Jefferson1141131910
Mobile722941323
Madison52048686
Shelby37315341
Baldwin37098540
Tuscaloosa34973599
Montgomery33996725
Lee23158240
Calhoun22168470
Morgan20675372
Etowah19770496
Marshall18258300
Houston17314405
St. Clair15924337
Cullman15333290
Limestone15239198
Elmore15095284
Lauderdale14163294
Talladega13728272
DeKalb12575259
Walker11096366
Blount10104174
Autauga9904146
Jackson9795180
Coffee9182189
Dale8866181
Colbert8794200
Tallapoosa7045195
Escambia6747127
Covington6688179
Chilton6595160
Russell626358
Franklin5936105
Chambers5562142
Marion4960126
Dallas4897199
Clarke473482
Pike4721105
Geneva4564126
Winston4478101
Lawrence4269117
Bibb421786
Barbour356075
Marengo334189
Monroe330662
Randolph327763
Butler324894
Pickens314082
Henry311265
Hale309487
Cherokee300557
Fayette291079
Washington251151
Cleburne247058
Crenshaw243775
Clay240867
Macon230762
Lamar218146
Conecuh185752
Coosa179038
Lowndes174161
Wilcox167838
Bullock151744
Perry138040
Sumter131138
Greene125844
Choctaw87027
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Hi: 75° Lo: 44°
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Columbus
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Oxford
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We have had some nice and dry days for the last several days. We will change things just a bit over the next few days, as we will see some scattered showers and thunderstorms back into our weather forecast by later Wednesday and into Thursday.
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