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CNN Poll: More see Trump win likely as Biden leads crowded Democratic field

Americans are becoming more likely to think President Donald Trump will win a second term in office, while J...

Posted: Oct 15, 2018 8:39 AM
Updated: Oct 15, 2018 8:39 AM

Americans are becoming more likely to think President Donald Trump will win a second term in office, while Joe Biden stands atop a crowded field of Democrats perhaps looking to replace him, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS.

The public is split over whether they think the President will win a second term -- 46% say he will and 47% say he won't. But that's a steep improvement for him since March, when 54% of adults said they thought he'd lose his bid for a second term. The share seeing a second Trump win in the offing has risen across party lines. The increase is a bit sharper among men (up 8 points), independents (from 39% in March to 47% now) and those who are enthusiastic about voting in this year's midterms (from 37% in March to 46% now).

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The President's partisans are just as likely to want him renominated now as they were in March: Seventy-four percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say he should be the party's nominee in 2020, and 21% would rather see someone else at the top of the ticket.

In the race for the Democratic nomination to face Trump, former Vice President Biden leads a massive potential field. The poll asked Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents to choose their preferred presidential nominee among 16 possible candidates. Biden tops the list with 33% support, followed by independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the 2016 runner-up, at 13%. Sen. Kamala Harris of California follows at 9%, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts at 8%. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey and 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry garnered 5% support.

Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who recently became a registered Democrat and spoke in New Hampshire on Saturday night, stands at 4% in the poll. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of Texas, currently running against Sen. Ted Cruz, also lands at 4%. Less than 1% said they back Rep. John Delaney of Maryland, the only declared candidate in the field, and just 1% choose attorney Michael Avenatti, who has been visiting early primary and caucus states.

Sanders continues to prompt some of the same divisions he did in 2016, garnering lower support among self-identified Democrats and older voters. Among those who consider themselves Democrats, 34% back Biden, 11% Harris, 9% Sanders and 8% Warren. Among independents who say they lean to the Democratic Party, however, Sanders stands in second place, with 21% (Biden has 31%, Warren 8% and Harris 7%).

Harris appears to be the biggest beneficiary of Sanders' challenges among Democratic partisans. Among those self-identified Democrats who consider themselves liberal, Harris' support spikes to 19%, still behind Biden at 27% but well ahead of Sanders, who earns just 7% support among that group.

When you add Democratic-leaning independents back to the mix, liberals are more evenly split, with 28% behind Biden, 15% Harris, 13% Sanders and 11% Warren. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaners who consider themselves more moderate or conservative, Biden stands well above the rest: 38% Biden, 14% Sanders and all the rest in single digits.

There is also still an age gap in the party over Sanders and Biden, with younger voters more apt to back Sanders than older voters (21% among those under age 45 versus 8% among older Democrats) and Biden's numbers far higher among those over 45 (39% in the older group back Biden versus 26% among younger Democrats). No other candidates receive significantly different support across age groups.

There is little gap in Biden's support between men (35%) and women (32%), suggesting the review of his role in Clarence Thomas' 1991 Supreme Court confirmation hearings during Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation process has not caused notable harm to the former chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS October 4 through 7 among a random national sample of 1,009 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 307519

Reported Deaths: 7096
CountyCasesDeaths
DeSoto20772248
Hinds19888408
Harrison17489302
Rankin13311275
Jackson13097243
Madison9895210
Lee9856169
Jones8290160
Forrest7523146
Lauderdale7187237
Lowndes6262144
Lamar610584
Lafayette6027117
Washington5280132
Bolivar4769129
Oktibbeha455297
Panola4442103
Pearl River4419139
Warren4280118
Marshall4273100
Pontotoc416472
Monroe4057132
Union403675
Neshoba3987176
Lincoln3869108
Hancock372085
Leflore3468124
Sunflower329389
Tate322681
Pike3180104
Scott310572
Yazoo304368
Alcorn297764
Itawamba296776
Copiah292965
Coahoma289677
Simpson287484
Tippah284668
Prentiss275659
Marion265779
Wayne261341
Leake261073
Grenada254982
Covington254580
Adams245882
Newton244859
George237847
Winston225981
Tishomingo222067
Jasper219748
Attala213273
Chickasaw204857
Holmes186471
Clay182454
Stone179131
Clarke176876
Tallahatchie175240
Calhoun163230
Yalobusha158836
Smith158534
Walthall130543
Greene129433
Lawrence126223
Noxubee125933
Montgomery125542
Perry125138
Carroll120826
Amite120041
Webster113432
Jefferson Davis105432
Tunica102525
Claiborne101330
Benton97225
Kemper95226
Humphreys94332
Franklin81823
Quitman78916
Choctaw72817
Jefferson64828
Wilkinson64727
Sharkey49617
Issaquena1686
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 518899

Reported Deaths: 10712
CountyCasesDeaths
Jefferson753641487
Mobile37763798
Madison33859494
Tuscaloosa25266443
Montgomery23962565
Shelby23106238
Baldwin20631300
Lee15524165
Calhoun14284311
Morgan14139268
Etowah13662345
Marshall11957219
Houston10380278
Elmore9993200
Limestone9811147
Cullman9470188
St. Clair9426234
Lauderdale9215227
DeKalb8746181
Talladega8058171
Walker7087275
Jackson6754110
Autauga6723103
Blount6483135
Colbert6203130
Coffee5399112
Dale4767110
Russell428838
Franklin419982
Chilton4083109
Covington4053114
Tallapoosa3893146
Escambia387674
Dallas3527149
Chambers3499122
Clarke346360
Marion3065100
Pike305875
Lawrence295395
Winston272372
Bibb256258
Marengo248661
Geneva245875
Pickens232959
Barbour224755
Hale218775
Butler212266
Fayette208960
Henry187844
Cherokee182044
Randolph176941
Monroe171440
Washington164038
Macon154548
Clay149354
Crenshaw149257
Cleburne146041
Lamar139234
Lowndes136453
Wilcox124327
Bullock121340
Conecuh109028
Perry107926
Sumter102932
Coosa99228
Greene90734
Choctaw58724
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