CNN Poll: More see Trump win likely as Biden leads crowded Democratic field

Americans are becoming more likely to think President Donald Trump will win a second term in office, while J...

Posted: Oct 15, 2018 8:39 AM
Updated: Oct 15, 2018 8:39 AM

Americans are becoming more likely to think President Donald Trump will win a second term in office, while Joe Biden stands atop a crowded field of Democrats perhaps looking to replace him, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS.

The public is split over whether they think the President will win a second term -- 46% say he will and 47% say he won't. But that's a steep improvement for him since March, when 54% of adults said they thought he'd lose his bid for a second term. The share seeing a second Trump win in the offing has risen across party lines. The increase is a bit sharper among men (up 8 points), independents (from 39% in March to 47% now) and those who are enthusiastic about voting in this year's midterms (from 37% in March to 46% now).

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The President's partisans are just as likely to want him renominated now as they were in March: Seventy-four percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say he should be the party's nominee in 2020, and 21% would rather see someone else at the top of the ticket.

In the race for the Democratic nomination to face Trump, former Vice President Biden leads a massive potential field. The poll asked Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents to choose their preferred presidential nominee among 16 possible candidates. Biden tops the list with 33% support, followed by independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the 2016 runner-up, at 13%. Sen. Kamala Harris of California follows at 9%, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts at 8%. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey and 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry garnered 5% support.

Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who recently became a registered Democrat and spoke in New Hampshire on Saturday night, stands at 4% in the poll. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of Texas, currently running against Sen. Ted Cruz, also lands at 4%. Less than 1% said they back Rep. John Delaney of Maryland, the only declared candidate in the field, and just 1% choose attorney Michael Avenatti, who has been visiting early primary and caucus states.

Sanders continues to prompt some of the same divisions he did in 2016, garnering lower support among self-identified Democrats and older voters. Among those who consider themselves Democrats, 34% back Biden, 11% Harris, 9% Sanders and 8% Warren. Among independents who say they lean to the Democratic Party, however, Sanders stands in second place, with 21% (Biden has 31%, Warren 8% and Harris 7%).

Harris appears to be the biggest beneficiary of Sanders' challenges among Democratic partisans. Among those self-identified Democrats who consider themselves liberal, Harris' support spikes to 19%, still behind Biden at 27% but well ahead of Sanders, who earns just 7% support among that group.

When you add Democratic-leaning independents back to the mix, liberals are more evenly split, with 28% behind Biden, 15% Harris, 13% Sanders and 11% Warren. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaners who consider themselves more moderate or conservative, Biden stands well above the rest: 38% Biden, 14% Sanders and all the rest in single digits.

There is also still an age gap in the party over Sanders and Biden, with younger voters more apt to back Sanders than older voters (21% among those under age 45 versus 8% among older Democrats) and Biden's numbers far higher among those over 45 (39% in the older group back Biden versus 26% among younger Democrats). No other candidates receive significantly different support across age groups.

There is little gap in Biden's support between men (35%) and women (32%), suggesting the review of his role in Clarence Thomas' 1991 Supreme Court confirmation hearings during Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation process has not caused notable harm to the former chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS October 4 through 7 among a random national sample of 1,009 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 98886

Reported Deaths: 2979
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hinds7189161
DeSoto569464
Harrison394175
Jackson358570
Rankin337280
Madison334190
Lee293572
Forrest254275
Jones252780
Washington227879
Lafayette221240
Lauderdale2078126
Bolivar187370
Oktibbeha181952
Lamar176237
Lowndes160858
Neshoba1599104
Panola151631
Sunflower149146
Leflore143882
Warren141850
Pontotoc130116
Monroe125369
Pike124954
Copiah119933
Scott118027
Coahoma117530
Lincoln112353
Marshall111821
Grenada110136
Holmes110060
Yazoo106733
Simpson105847
Tate101938
Union101224
Leake96538
Adams94937
Wayne91521
Pearl River91453
Prentiss88418
Marion87537
Itawamba85921
Alcorn83411
Covington83223
George78513
Tallahatchie78324
Newton78124
Winston74619
Tishomingo71039
Tippah70518
Chickasaw69524
Attala67225
Clarke61149
Walthall60426
Clay59919
Hancock59822
Jasper58415
Noxubee55816
Smith55115
Calhoun52912
Tunica50015
Montgomery47020
Claiborne46516
Yalobusha44414
Lawrence43914
Perry43221
Quitman3905
Greene38917
Stone38013
Humphreys37715
Jefferson Davis34711
Amite34210
Webster33913
Carroll33112
Wilkinson30818
Kemper29115
Sharkey26714
Jefferson2439
Benton2333
Franklin1993
Choctaw1876
Issaquena1063
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Confirmed Cases: 138162

Reported Deaths: 2405
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Jefferson20221352
Mobile13558295
Tuscaloosa9029118
Montgomery8894187
Madison800580
Shelby616450
Lee601761
Baldwin564052
Marshall398345
Etowah357545
Calhoun356944
Morgan334929
Houston295421
Elmore273948
DeKalb246121
St. Clair237937
Walker236987
Talladega219030
Limestone215720
Cullman192220
Dallas179926
Franklin179430
Autauga179127
Russell17903
Lauderdale175934
Colbert168426
Blount162915
Escambia162024
Jackson161112
Chilton160930
Dale141844
Covington141628
Coffee13936
Pike122011
Chambers117942
Tallapoosa117385
Clarke110916
Marion97629
Butler91740
Barbour8967
Winston75112
Marengo72820
Pickens67215
Randolph67213
Bibb66411
Lowndes65927
Hale65328
Geneva6505
Lawrence63625
Cherokee62013
Bullock61015
Clay5929
Monroe5928
Washington56012
Crenshaw54532
Perry5436
Conecuh53811
Wilcox53211
Henry5145
Macon48318
Fayette47311
Sumter43419
Cleburne4085
Lamar3822
Choctaw35212
Greene30615
Coosa1743
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