The Forecast predicts House and Senate races

CNN launched The Forecast, an experimental product that uses data analysis to forecast who has the best chance of controlling the House and Senate.

Posted: Oct 13, 2018 3:20 PM
Updated: Oct 13, 2018 3:32 PM

House forecast: Democrats will win 229 seats (and the House majority) while Republicans will win just 206 seats. A Democratic win of 205 seats and 262 seats is within the margin of error.

Senate forecast: Republicans will hold 52 seats (and maintain control of the Senate) next Congress while Democrats will hold just 48. Anything between Republicans holding 47 seats and 57 seats is within the margin of error.

Republican hopes of holding the Senate look as bright as ever. Thanks to clear Republican advantages in North Dakota, Tennessee and Texas in our forecast, the Democratic path to a Senate majority is currently blocked. All of those races are within the margin of error, but they aren't razor tight.

For 2020 presidential implications, however, the forecast has good news for Democrats. President Donald Trump was able to win in 2016 because he broke the Democratic stranglehold on the Midwest. Specifically, he took Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Without these states, he would have lost to Hillary Clinton. Trump also came close to winning Minnesota, which no Republican presidential candidate has done since Richard Nixon.

Democrats probably have to win back a good chunk of these states in 2020 to win the presidency.

All of these states except Iowa have a Senate race in 2018, and Democrats lead in all of them.

Michigan: Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is forecasted to win by 18 points. That advantage is outside the margin of error.

Ohio: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is forecasted to win by 15 points. This advantage is outside the margin of error.

Pennsylvania: Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is forecasted to win by 14 points. This advantage is right on the edge of being outside the margin of error.

Wisconsin: Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is forecasted to win by 12 points. This advantage is inside the margin of error, but is on the outer-bands.

You notice a pattern? Democrats are predicted to win all these races by double-digits. Some of them are so big that they are outside the margin of error. That's a far cry from 2016, when Republicans won the presidential race and (when there was one) Senate races in all these states.

It's no better for Republicans in Minnesota. Although Republicans may pick up a seat or two in Republican-leaning House districts, the Senate seats currently look out of reach. Senior Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar is forecasted to win by 24 points, which is well outside the margin of error. Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is forecasted to take Minnesota's other Senate seat by 10 points -- an advantage on the edge of the margin of error.

Now, it would be easy to argue that this is merely Democratic incumbent senators merely using the incumbency advantage. That, however, would ignore the strength that Democrats are having in the gubernatorial contests in these states.

We're not forecasting winners and losers in the gubernatorial races, though the polling averages in these states are quite instructive. Democrats are ahead of their Republican rivals in all these states, and only one of them (Pennsylvania) had a Democratic incumbent.

Iowa: Democrat Fred Hubbell holds a 4-point lead over Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds.

Michigan: Democrat Gretchen Whitmer is up 9 points over Republican Bill Schuette.

Minnesota: Democrat Tim Walz leads Republican Jeff Johnson by 9 points.

Ohio: Democrat Richard Cordray is ahead of Republican Mike DeWine by 3 points.

Pennsylvania: Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is winning by 17 points over Republican Scott Wagner.

Wisconsin: Democrat Tony Evers is barely up on Republican Scott Walker by 4 points.

Obviously, not all of these leads are large. Additionally, it shouldn't be too surprising that Democrats are doing well given the national environment favors them.

Still, these results suggest that the Midwest isn't moving to the right this year. It is still a very winnable region for Democrats in 2020. Without it, Democrats may be locked out of the White House.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 512632

Reported Deaths: 10262
CountyCasesDeaths
Harrison34853555
DeSoto33162432
Hinds32556641
Jackson24830389
Rankin22442402
Lee16238242
Madison14874283
Jones14086247
Forrest13741259
Lauderdale12249324
Lowndes11286193
Lamar10644140
Pearl River9707244
Lafayette8827143
Hancock7835132
Washington7550169
Oktibbeha7204138
Monroe6989179
Pontotoc6970109
Warren6849178
Panola6746134
Neshoba6726210
Marshall6653141
Bolivar6440151
Union633897
Pike5924156
Alcorn5862107
Lincoln5525136
George510180
Prentiss500884
Tippah490282
Itawamba4829107
Scott477499
Adams4766125
Tate4748116
Leflore4723144
Copiah455895
Yazoo455591
Simpson4543117
Wayne442772
Covington432895
Sunflower4299106
Marion4265112
Coahoma4227109
Leake413790
Newton395581
Tishomingo381793
Grenada3775109
Stone365666
Jasper340166
Attala337790
Winston317792
Chickasaw313367
Clay311878
Clarke301195
Calhoun284449
Holmes271289
Smith268952
Yalobusha243747
Tallahatchie231453
Greene224749
Walthall221366
Lawrence217840
Perry213356
Amite209557
Webster205148
Noxubee188642
Montgomery181557
Carroll174441
Jefferson Davis173643
Tunica163239
Benton152639
Kemper144941
Choctaw136527
Claiborne134238
Humphreys131139
Franklin124929
Quitman107528
Wilkinson105939
Jefferson96834
Sharkey65121
Issaquena1957
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 844951

Reported Deaths: 16115
CountyCasesDeaths
Jefferson1161002006
Mobile741871379
Madison53279732
Shelby38325368
Baldwin38068589
Tuscaloosa36009641
Montgomery34482781
Lee25550263
Calhoun22585518
Morgan22451406
Etowah20013517
Marshall18777316
Houston17727425
St. Clair16875358
Limestone16135218
Cullman16044303
Elmore15904294
Lauderdale14968306
Talladega14189299
DeKalb12967269
Walker12020380
Blount10714192
Autauga10517157
Jackson10157194
Coffee9414192
Colbert9334208
Dale9018191
Tallapoosa7254201
Russell707765
Chilton7018170
Escambia6955143
Covington6932195
Franklin6340108
Chambers5783142
Marion5401130
Dallas5285209
Pike5118109
Clarke484986
Lawrence4826129
Winston4780110
Geneva4642136
Bibb434094
Barbour369480
Butler3434100
Marengo342393
Monroe337066
Randolph334367
Pickens333188
Fayette330085
Henry320666
Hale318189
Cherokee317563
Crenshaw260477
Washington256952
Cleburne254460
Lamar251253
Clay250869
Macon244764
Conecuh192762
Coosa184947
Lowndes178168
Wilcox177438
Bullock152645
Perry141840
Sumter139241
Greene130245
Choctaw93228
Out of AL00
Unassigned00
Tupelo
Clear
43° wxIcon
Hi: 62° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 43°
Columbus
Partly Cloudy
47° wxIcon
Hi: 60° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 47°
Oxford
Partly Cloudy
41° wxIcon
Hi: 60° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 38°
Starkville
Partly Cloudy
48° wxIcon
Hi: 61° Lo: 27°
Feels Like: 48°
High pressure will continue to dominate our weather forecast for our Saturday. This will keep us filled with plenty of sunshine in our weather forecast for our Saturday.
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