Poll: Trump approval drops amid op-ed, 'Fear'

President Trump's approval rating has fallen six points in the last month and stands at a new low among political independents, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

Posted: Sep 11, 2018 11:34 PM
Updated: Sep 12, 2018 12:02 AM

President Donald Trump's approval rating in the latest CNN poll stands at just 36%. That's a 6-point drop from 42% last month.

Normally, I'd dismiss such a decline as statistical noise and want to see other polls before declaring that the President's standing among the public has diminished.

Here's the thing: CNN's poll is only the latest in a series of high-quality, live-interview polling over the last two weeks to show that Trump's approval rating is down. This dip could have a major impact on the midterms if it holds.

Eight high-quality polls have been completed over the two last weeks -- and every single one of them has Trump's approval falling.

In the latest average, Trump's approval rating is about 38% in eight polls from ABC News/Washington Post, CNN, Gallup, IBD/TIPP, the Kaiser Family Foundation, Quinnipiac University, Selzer & Co. and Suffolk University.

If we just took an average of the last polls by these organizations completed August 27 or earlier, Trump's approval rating stood at 41%.

Now, not all of these pollsters show the same drop. Trump's 6-point decline in CNN's poll is the largest. When you take an average of their latest two tracking polls compared with their prior two, Gallup has Trump dipping just a percentage point.

You'd expect such differences though given sampling error.

An average 3-point decline is rather remarkable for a President whose approval rating has been one of the steadiest on record. It would suggest that something the President did had a real impact on public perception.

House Republicans should worry about Trump's approval rating drop, if it holds through November. Voter opinions of the President have been increasingly tied up with how they vote in midterm elections.

CNN polling has regularly found that more than 80% of voters who approve of Trump are voting for Republican House candidates, compared with more than 80% of voters who disapprove of Trump voting for Democratic House candidates.

As I noted last week:

For Republicans to have a realistic (i.e. within the margin of error) shot of maintaining control of the House in 2018, Trump's approval rating must remain at least in the low 40s nationally.

For them to have a 50% chance of holding on to power in the House, Trump's approval rating will likely need to rise into the mid-40s.

Right now, Trump and his fellow Republicans are ... going the other (i.e. wrong) way.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 70930

Reported Deaths: 2043
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hinds5803124
DeSoto379632
Harrison266336
Madison250372
Jackson241147
Rankin233738
Jones194562
Forrest186557
Washington173945
Lee161042
Lauderdale145894
Neshoba130994
Lamar124616
Bolivar116737
Warren115136
Oktibbeha114539
Lowndes111440
Panola109618
Sunflower108628
Lafayette102520
Scott101720
Copiah97329
Leflore96368
Pike96037
Holmes92849
Yazoo87413
Pontotoc8669
Grenada86126
Lincoln84943
Monroe83955
Simpson82231
Leake80427
Coahoma79813
Wayne79021
Tate75330
Marshall74010
Union73217
Marion69221
Adams64726
Covington64115
Winston63716
George6059
Pearl River57140
Newton56711
Tallahatchie55011
Attala53925
Walthall51922
Chickasaw49119
Noxubee46612
Prentiss46210
Tishomingo4539
Alcorn4455
Calhoun4289
Smith41513
Hancock41415
Jasper4129
Tippah41114
Claiborne41014
Clay40614
Itawamba40410
Tunica3677
Clarke35528
Montgomery3467
Lawrence3328
Yalobusha31810
Humphreys30312
Quitman2751
Carroll26311
Greene26213
Webster25013
Perry2498
Jefferson Davis2436
Amite2426
Kemper24114
Wilkinson22714
Stone2256
Sharkey2097
Jefferson1977
Benton1571
Choctaw1384
Franklin1372
Issaquena272
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Confirmed Cases: 102196

Reported Deaths: 1825
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Jefferson13578262
Mobile10747221
Montgomery6999153
Madison555035
Tuscaloosa435080
Unassigned406169
Baldwin374429
Shelby338137
Marshall320738
Lee273647
Morgan244320
Etowah220934
DeKalb186614
Calhoun185319
Elmore178339
Walker156265
Houston145913
Limestone139313
Russell13912
St. Clair138120
Dallas134825
Franklin131022
Cullman124612
Colbert123218
Lauderdale121320
Autauga119622
Escambia109417
Talladega108714
Jackson10794
Tallapoosa87879
Dale85629
Chambers84838
Blount8355
Chilton8309
Clarke82710
Coffee7816
Butler77536
Covington75521
Pike7167
Marion59226
Barbour5866
Lowndes57524
Marengo57217
Bullock49311
Hale48726
Bibb4575
Winston45611
Washington45313
Perry4484
Wilcox44510
Monroe4256
Pickens41310
Randolph40411
Conecuh39710
Sumter37019
Lawrence3603
Macon34414
Crenshaw3338
Choctaw29012
Cherokee2888
Clay2785
Geneva2692
Henry2683
Greene25511
Lamar2372
Fayette2275
Cleburne1301
Coosa1063
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