BREAKING NEWS Morning shooting in Amory: 1 dead, 1 in custody Full Story
WEATHER AUTHORITY : Heat Advisory - Excessive Heat Warning View Alerts

What Republicans get wrong about the 'blue wave crashing'

The headline on Sean Hannity's website blared the news: "...

Posted: May 15, 2018 8:18 AM
Updated: May 15, 2018 8:18 AM

The headline on Sean Hannity's website blared the news: "BLUE WAVE CRASHING: Poll Shows Americans Side with TRUMP on Economy, Security."

The piece on hannity.com was actually just a summary of a broader piece written by the Washington Examiner's Paul Bedard -- which carried the same headline and the same message: Republicans (and Trump) are actually in much better shape heading into the November election than people believe.

That conclusion was based on polling conducted by Zogby Analaytics, a firm run by pollster John Zogby, and shared exclusively with Bedard.

Here's the spine of the argument made in it:

"When asked 'Who do you trust more?' on the economy, it was Trump over Democrats 41 percent to 35 percent, and on national security the president again led, 40 percent to 38 percent. ... Added to the poll's other findings that support for Democrats is down among millennials, blacks, and so-called Walmart and NASCAR voters, it would appear that Trump is back in favor among voters and that the ballyhooed 'Blue Wave' is dissipating."

So.

Well.

There are a lot of things wrong here. Let's list them!

  1. Bedard notes lower in the piece that Democrats continue to hold a 40% to 33% edge on the generic congressional ballot question in the Zogby poll. The generic ballot, much more so than "who do you trust" questions, has historically been the best predictor of party gains or losses in congressional elections. And a 7-point Democratic edge would suggest significant gains for the minority party if the margin held through November. (Bedard notes that Democrats were at 44% in the Zogby generic ballot in January but offers no specifics on what the Republican number looked like at that point.)
  2. The "edges" that Trump has over Democrats on the economy and national security "trust" questions are almost certainly statistically insignificant. While Bedard doesn't provide details about the size of the sample or the resulting margin of error, it's very, very likely to be well within the 2-point "lead" that Trump has on national security and even the 6-point margin he enjoys on the economy. Statistically speaking, the best way to describe these results goes something like this: People trust both Democrats and President Trump roughly equally when it comes to issues of the economy and matters of national security.
  3. This poll is conducted via the Internet, a methodology that continues to be looked at very skeptically by the broader polling community. "Rigorous evaluations have found that volunteer online panels are less representative of the general population than probability samples," reads an analysis of the method on the American Association for Public Opinion Research. (You can read MUCH more about the issues with online polling here.)

None of that is to say that there may well be signs emerging of a path toward something well short of destruction for Republicans this fall. As I noted last week, there is data that suggests a) people are increasingly focused on the economy and optimistic about its future prospects and b) potentially willing to separate their feelings about Trump from their views of the broader GOP. And even Trump's not-terribly-strong job approval numbers have shown some marginal improvement of late!

But that's not what this poll says. Or what Bedard's writeup says.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 343505

Reported Deaths: 7543
CountyCasesDeaths
Hinds23932444
DeSoto23229283
Harrison20527329
Rankin15411291
Jackson15232252
Madison10959227
Lee10719179
Jones9047169
Forrest8723159
Lauderdale7884244
Lowndes7054151
Lamar702989
Lafayette6548124
Washington5595139
Pearl River5196152
Bolivar4954134
Oktibbeha494398
Panola4771112
Warren4728128
Marshall4701106
Pontotoc447773
Union433279
Monroe4330137
Neshoba4281181
Hancock428088
Lincoln4176116
Pike3667113
Leflore3627125
Tate353388
Alcorn350974
Sunflower347694
Scott341176
Adams340988
Yazoo339376
Copiah324968
Simpson322891
Itawamba314680
Coahoma314085
Tippah306568
Prentiss298863
Covington293484
Leake285475
Marion284181
Wayne277543
George272251
Grenada269488
Newton262364
Tishomingo239770
Winston236784
Jasper230648
Stone229637
Attala226373
Chickasaw219060
Holmes200174
Clay197654
Clarke186880
Tallahatchie183742
Calhoun181332
Smith179235
Yalobusha171540
Walthall145748
Lawrence142826
Greene140134
Amite137543
Noxubee135235
Perry133538
Montgomery133044
Carroll126431
Webster121232
Jefferson Davis116734
Tunica114227
Benton106725
Claiborne105331
Kemper102429
Humphreys100133
Franklin87923
Quitman84719
Choctaw82619
Wilkinson78032
Jefferson71328
Sharkey51618
Issaquena1736
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 577463

Reported Deaths: 11510
CountyCasesDeaths
Jefferson841981589
Mobile47171860
Madison37047533
Tuscaloosa26915465
Shelby26873256
Montgomery25918625
Baldwin24499328
Lee16949181
Calhoun15252332
Morgan15017290
Etowah14778370
Marshall12933235
Houston11774292
Elmore10761217
St. Clair10617252
Limestone10574158
Cullman10363205
Lauderdale10083254
DeKalb9382191
Talladega8836188
Walker7681287
Autauga7479114
Jackson7317117
Blount7266139
Colbert6635142
Coffee6163132
Dale5453117
Russell470642
Chilton4682117
Covington4649125
Franklin450081
Tallapoosa4440156
Escambia427882
Chambers3898125
Dallas3717163
Clarke367763
Marion3427106
Pike327879
Lawrence3225101
Winston294973
Bibb284565
Geneva276383
Marengo259967
Barbour246261
Pickens240062
Butler238272
Hale232778
Fayette225264
Henry209245
Monroe197241
Randolph196744
Cherokee196348
Washington180139
Macon168752
Crenshaw165558
Clay163759
Cleburne160245
Lamar149938
Lowndes144854
Wilcox130531
Bullock126142
Conecuh119630
Coosa116929
Perry109928
Sumter109032
Greene98736
Choctaw64325
Out of AL00
Unassigned00
Tupelo
Clear
95° wxIcon
Hi: 97° Lo: 78°
Feels Like: 105°
Columbus
Clear
95° wxIcon
Hi: 95° Lo: 78°
Feels Like: 111°
Oxford
Partly Cloudy
95° wxIcon
Hi: 95° Lo: 75°
Feels Like: 105°
Starkville
Partly Cloudy
93° wxIcon
Hi: 95° Lo: 76°
Feels Like: 105°
Very hot and very humid conditions linger in our area for our Saturday. However, the heat and humidity start to dwindle a bit as we go into our Sunday and beyond. As a matter of fact below normal high temperatures for this time of year.
WTVA Radar
WTVA Temperatures
WTVA Severe Weather