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CNN poll: Trump trails Sanders, Biden, Oprah in 2020 matchups

President Donald Trump faces an uphill climb to re-election in 2020 against a slate of prominent potential Democratic...

Posted: Jan 23, 2018 5:34 PM
Updated: Jan 23, 2018 5:34 PM

President Donald Trump faces an uphill climb to re-election in 2020 against a slate of prominent potential Democratic hopefuls, according to new polling from CNN conducted by SSRS.

In a series of hypothetical 2020 one-on-one contests Trump trails Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by a 55% to 42% margin among registered voters. He lags further behind former Vice President Joe Biden by a wide 57% to 40% split, and trails television personality Oprah Winfrey by a 51% to 42% divide.

Trump trails Biden by 17 points, Sanders by 13 and Winfrey by 9 in potential 2020 races

Polling this far ahead of an election fails to fully reflect the realities of a campaign

The potential broad margins for the Democratic 2020 matchups are shaped by winning over some core groups that cast ballots for Trump in 2016, including white women and whites with a college degree. Trump leads among whites without a degree, though it's cut to just one-third of his gaping 2016 margin. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2 percentage points in 2016 but lost in the Electoral College.

Still, polling this far ahead of an election fails to fully reflect the realities of a campaign - namely, the focused negative messaging that the sitting President currently faces. Trump launched his 2020 bid with federal election officials on the day of his inauguration, allowing him to raise money and hold events for his re-election campaign since he entered the White House.

A majority of Americans, 57%, say they have a favorable view of Sanders - essentially unchanged since he bowed out of the Democratic presidential primary in 2016. A similar 58% say they have a favorable view of Biden, up from the 51% favorable rating he had when he was last considering a run in October 2015. More Americans, 64%, say they have a favorable view of Winfrey.

The three candidates have nearly identical favorable ratings among the Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who will make up the potential electorate for Democratic primaries and caucuses: Sanders has an 82% favorable rating among this group, Biden also has 82% and Winfrey has 83%.

Women voters are key to Democrats' potential success in 2020. The numbers show all three potential Democratic hopefuls winning white women by massive double-digit margins: Winfrey by 14 points, Sanders by 17 points and Biden by 23 points. Trump defeated Clinton by 9 points with this group in the 2016 presidential election, according to CNN exit polls. Among all women, those margins grow to a whopping 29 points for Winfrey, 30 points for Sanders and 36 points for Biden.

Both Republicans and Democrats remain virtually united around their candidate regardless of who's running, though Winfrey consolidates slightly less support from Democrats than Biden and Sanders. Among independents, Biden leads by 15 points, Sanders by 10 and Winfrey by 4.

Neither Sanders, 76, and Biden, 75, has ruled out a presidential bid in 2020. After Oprah's compelling speech at the Golden Globe awards raised speculation about her potential future political aspirations, Trump told reporters: "Yeah, I'll beat Oprah ... I like Oprah. I don't think she's going to run." Two sources later told CNN she was "actively thinking" about running for the White House.

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS January 14-18 among a random national sample of 918 registered voters reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. No interviewing was completed on January 16 due to weather conditions at call center locations. Results for all registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 97049

Reported Deaths: 2921
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hinds7151160
DeSoto565061
Harrison388874
Jackson352770
Madison331489
Rankin331179
Lee276470
Forrest250976
Jones250479
Washington225977
Lafayette219840
Lauderdale2065125
Bolivar184966
Oktibbeha180252
Lamar172836
Lowndes158158
Neshoba1581104
Panola151031
Sunflower148046
Leflore141781
Warren140950
Pontotoc128216
Pike124251
Monroe123969
Copiah119333
Scott117627
Coahoma116329
Marshall111517
Lincoln111453
Holmes110059
Grenada109536
Yazoo106230
Simpson104846
Tate101138
Union99924
Leake96238
Adams94337
Wayne90821
Pearl River89653
Marion86935
Prentiss86517
Itawamba83521
Alcorn82711
Covington82723
George78313
Tallahatchie77621
Newton77324
Winston74219
Tishomingo69438
Chickasaw68524
Tippah67317
Attala67125
Clarke60346
Walthall60226
Clay59818
Hancock59022
Jasper57815
Noxubee55516
Smith53815
Calhoun52412
Tunica49915
Claiborne46516
Montgomery46520
Yalobusha43714
Lawrence43313
Perry42419
Greene38617
Quitman3805
Humphreys37815
Stone37612
Jefferson Davis34211
Webster33813
Amite33510
Carroll32112
Wilkinson30518
Kemper29015
Sharkey26613
Jefferson2439
Benton2293
Franklin1933
Choctaw1866
Issaquena1053
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Confirmed Cases: 136055

Reported Deaths: 2364
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Jefferson19833350
Mobile13471292
Montgomery8865184
Tuscaloosa8744118
Madison797878
Shelby604349
Lee594560
Baldwin558850
Marshall396743
Calhoun354844
Etowah354045
Morgan332728
Houston293521
Elmore269148
DeKalb243521
St. Clair234036
Walker233084
Talladega217729
Limestone213520
Cullman191120
Dallas179326
Franklin179029
Autauga178525
Russell17653
Lauderdale174033
Colbert167526
Blount161815
Escambia161424
Chilton159330
Jackson158911
Covington140327
Dale139944
Coffee13656
Pike120510
Chambers117242
Tallapoosa116685
Clarke110416
Marion97129
Butler91439
Barbour8867
Winston74512
Marengo72620
Pickens66814
Randolph66013
Bibb65710
Lowndes65727
Hale64928
Geneva6384
Lawrence62823
Cherokee61413
Bullock60714
Clay5928
Monroe5908
Washington56113
Crenshaw54232
Perry5426
Conecuh53711
Wilcox53211
Henry5085
Macon48318
Fayette4678
Sumter43819
Cleburne3895
Lamar3772
Choctaw35112
Greene30315
Coosa1723
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