CNN poll: Trump trails Sanders, Biden, Oprah in 2020 matchups

President Donald Trump faces an uphill climb to re-election in 2020 against a slate of prominent potential Democratic...

Posted: Jan 23, 2018 5:34 PM
Updated: Jan 23, 2018 5:34 PM

President Donald Trump faces an uphill climb to re-election in 2020 against a slate of prominent potential Democratic hopefuls, according to new polling from CNN conducted by SSRS.

In a series of hypothetical 2020 one-on-one contests Trump trails Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by a 55% to 42% margin among registered voters. He lags further behind former Vice President Joe Biden by a wide 57% to 40% split, and trails television personality Oprah Winfrey by a 51% to 42% divide.

Trump trails Biden by 17 points, Sanders by 13 and Winfrey by 9 in potential 2020 races

Polling this far ahead of an election fails to fully reflect the realities of a campaign

The potential broad margins for the Democratic 2020 matchups are shaped by winning over some core groups that cast ballots for Trump in 2016, including white women and whites with a college degree. Trump leads among whites without a degree, though it's cut to just one-third of his gaping 2016 margin. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2 percentage points in 2016 but lost in the Electoral College.

Still, polling this far ahead of an election fails to fully reflect the realities of a campaign - namely, the focused negative messaging that the sitting President currently faces. Trump launched his 2020 bid with federal election officials on the day of his inauguration, allowing him to raise money and hold events for his re-election campaign since he entered the White House.

A majority of Americans, 57%, say they have a favorable view of Sanders - essentially unchanged since he bowed out of the Democratic presidential primary in 2016. A similar 58% say they have a favorable view of Biden, up from the 51% favorable rating he had when he was last considering a run in October 2015. More Americans, 64%, say they have a favorable view of Winfrey.

The three candidates have nearly identical favorable ratings among the Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who will make up the potential electorate for Democratic primaries and caucuses: Sanders has an 82% favorable rating among this group, Biden also has 82% and Winfrey has 83%.

Women voters are key to Democrats' potential success in 2020. The numbers show all three potential Democratic hopefuls winning white women by massive double-digit margins: Winfrey by 14 points, Sanders by 17 points and Biden by 23 points. Trump defeated Clinton by 9 points with this group in the 2016 presidential election, according to CNN exit polls. Among all women, those margins grow to a whopping 29 points for Winfrey, 30 points for Sanders and 36 points for Biden.

Both Republicans and Democrats remain virtually united around their candidate regardless of who's running, though Winfrey consolidates slightly less support from Democrats than Biden and Sanders. Among independents, Biden leads by 15 points, Sanders by 10 and Winfrey by 4.

Neither Sanders, 76, and Biden, 75, has ruled out a presidential bid in 2020. After Oprah's compelling speech at the Golden Globe awards raised speculation about her potential future political aspirations, Trump told reporters: "Yeah, I'll beat Oprah ... I like Oprah. I don't think she's going to run." Two sources later told CNN she was "actively thinking" about running for the White House.

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS January 14-18 among a random national sample of 918 registered voters reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. No interviewing was completed on January 16 due to weather conditions at call center locations. Results for all registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 314710

Reported Deaths: 7254
CountyCasesDeaths
DeSoto21646260
Hinds20369416
Harrison17949309
Rankin13643278
Jackson13450246
Madison10113217
Lee9986174
Jones8384163
Forrest7689152
Lauderdale7198240
Lowndes6403148
Lamar623686
Lafayette6203119
Washington5341134
Bolivar4802132
Oktibbeha462998
Panola4596107
Pearl River4519146
Marshall4450103
Warren4393121
Pontotoc420872
Monroe4115133
Union411176
Neshoba4031176
Lincoln3969110
Hancock379586
Leflore3498125
Sunflower336290
Tate334784
Pike3327105
Scott316274
Alcorn313368
Yazoo311770
Itawamba300577
Copiah297465
Coahoma295579
Simpson295388
Tippah288768
Adams286982
Prentiss280060
Marion269380
Leake268473
Wayne262841
Grenada261587
Covington259881
George248148
Newton246862
Winston227581
Tishomingo227067
Jasper221148
Attala214473
Chickasaw208057
Holmes189174
Clay185554
Stone182833
Tallahatchie178941
Clarke178080
Calhoun170932
Yalobusha164638
Smith162534
Walthall134245
Greene130633
Lawrence128724
Montgomery127142
Noxubee126734
Perry126338
Amite123142
Carroll121829
Webster114532
Jefferson Davis107133
Tunica105726
Claiborne102430
Benton100025
Humphreys96733
Kemper95828
Franklin83923
Quitman81116
Choctaw76418
Wilkinson67531
Jefferson65728
Sharkey50217
Issaquena1686
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 540083

Reported Deaths: 11038
CountyCasesDeaths
Jefferson798481529
Mobile41283809
Madison35157506
Tuscaloosa25925455
Shelby25302249
Montgomery24723593
Baldwin21411310
Lee15993172
Calhoun14574319
Morgan14425280
Etowah13925353
Marshall12280225
Houston10648282
Elmore10158206
Limestone10070151
St. Clair9948245
Cullman9768194
Lauderdale9460243
DeKalb8865188
Talladega8341176
Walker7261278
Autauga7005108
Jackson6840112
Blount6773139
Colbert6322135
Coffee5581118
Dale4877113
Russell445738
Chilton4373113
Franklin426382
Covington4138118
Tallapoosa4044153
Escambia394877
Chambers3596123
Dallas3569153
Clarke351561
Marion3140101
Pike312077
Lawrence303098
Winston275873
Bibb264764
Geneva254178
Marengo249865
Pickens234862
Barbour232056
Hale224078
Butler219169
Fayette212862
Henry189943
Cherokee184845
Randolph182542
Monroe178141
Washington167839
Macon161350
Clay157257
Crenshaw153557
Cleburne149641
Lamar143336
Lowndes140653
Wilcox127430
Bullock123242
Conecuh110829
Coosa109228
Perry107826
Sumter105032
Greene92634
Choctaw61024
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