Shutdown watch: What Trump's DACA moves mean

Put Thursday in the proper perspective: President Donald Trump, who said definitively he would sign what Congress sen...

Posted: Jan 12, 2018 1:51 PM
Updated: Jan 12, 2018 1:51 PM

Put Thursday in the proper perspective: President Donald Trump, who said definitively he would sign what Congress sends him, flatly rejected the lone (serious) bipartisan effort to reach a resolution on the expiring Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program.

And he did it by:

Hardline immigration Republicans pulled the rug out from under the 'group of six'

The government shutdown odds are as high as they've ever been under Trump

  • A. Surprising the two members of the "group of six" by having hardline immigration Republicans waiting for them when they arrived at the White House, all of whom opposed their agreement in principle.

  • B. Speaking in extraordinarily vulgar terms about a central piece of the proposal -- one of the key compromises to address the President's "four pillars" that need to be in any final deal.

In other words, the President, and Republicans in Congress, deliberately pulled the rug out from under the "group of six" proposal, in the most definitive of ways (with Friday morning's presidential tweets attempting to bury it six feet under for good measure).

And this was a coordinated effort by Republicans who saw the proposal as a complete non-starter.

So here's where lawmakers are right now, seven days from a potential shutdown, on getting an actual deal (not an agreement, or an agreement in principle, or like-minded people thinking alike): nowhere close.

House and Senate lawmakers are all gone for the long weekend. Keep an eye on phone calls and staff talks, but we likely won't get a clear glimpse of the players again until Tuesday -- four days before government funding runs out.

And what are the odds of a government shutdown: As high as they've ever been in the Trump administration.

What the "shithole" comment does to negotiations

It's still an open question, but Democrats do see a dynamic shift here. Aides -- and it's worth noting, most directly involved in the talks were very quiet Thursday night, willing to let this just sit out there on its own -- say it clearly hardens the resolve on the negotiators, but also, as one put it, "lays bare the true motivations and thinking of a president who tried to use words like 'love' and how much he cared in front of cameras. You tell me who the public will blame if this doesn't get done."

Of note: The Republicans who are players in the talks -- including those in the room for the comment -- were silent last night, beyond a statement attacking the group of six proposal as "not serious."

Just to make this clear: When CNN reported Thursday that GOP leaders in both chambers had moved hard away from having a DACA deal in place before January 19, it was precisely because the above dynamics were already in motion.

GOP leaders had moved sharply away from anything the "group of six" were working on, and were informed the White House would be with them. That's precisely what happened when that agreement was presented. Republicans say it's just a recognition of their very complicated reality.

"We can't do anything that can be called a 'Flake bill,'" one House GOP aide said flatly. "Our guys would burn the place down."

"Six people who agree on something agreed on something," another Senate GOP aide said. "That doesn't make it a deal and it certainly doesn't fly with our guys."

Or, as Sen. John Cornyn, the second-ranked Republican in the Senate, put it: "Six people can't agree to something that will bind the Congress."

Best sidebar on Capitol Hill

Which one of Trump's best Senate friends wins in the battle for his heart and mind on immigration: Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina or Republican Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas. The behind the scenes on this is fascinating. And on Thursday, with major help from allies in the White House, Cotton got a clear win.

What's still out there

The Group of No. 2s -- Cornyn, Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer -- is where the center of gravity has shifted toward, at least in the eyes of senior Republicans in both chambers.

The problem? They've been together for all of about five days. But in what one GOP aide pointed to as a positive: "They're leadership. They've got juice. And you needed something to blow up before a real deal could come together. And that's what happened Thursday."

What was in the Group of 6 proposal?

Per two sources with direct knowledge:

  • $1.6 billion toward a border fence, with another $1.1 bill in border security money for technology/resources/manpower
  • A 10- or 12-year pathway to citizenship for DREAMers, the length depending on whether they'd applied for protections already or not.
  • Parents of DACA recipients would not be eligible for citizenship, but could receive protected status in three-year increments
  • An overhaul of the diversity visa program to address those who have had their Temporary Protected Status removed, and those selected on merit from low immigration countries

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 307332

Reported Deaths: 7095
CountyCasesDeaths
DeSoto20757248
Hinds19869408
Harrison17475302
Rankin13307275
Jackson13095243
Madison9886210
Lee9854169
Jones8289160
Forrest7522146
Lauderdale7185237
Lowndes6261144
Lamar610284
Lafayette6026117
Washington5279132
Bolivar4769129
Oktibbeha455297
Panola4440103
Pearl River4418139
Warren4277118
Marshall4267100
Pontotoc416472
Monroe4056132
Union403575
Neshoba3984176
Lincoln3869107
Hancock371985
Leflore3468124
Sunflower329389
Tate322681
Pike3177104
Scott310472
Yazoo304268
Alcorn297664
Itawamba296776
Copiah292965
Coahoma289677
Simpson287484
Tippah284668
Prentiss275659
Marion265679
Wayne261341
Leake260973
Grenada254882
Covington254380
Adams245882
Newton244859
George237647
Winston225981
Tishomingo222067
Jasper219748
Attala213273
Chickasaw204857
Holmes186471
Clay182354
Stone179131
Clarke176676
Tallahatchie175240
Calhoun163130
Yalobusha158636
Smith158534
Walthall130543
Greene129433
Lawrence126223
Noxubee125833
Montgomery125542
Perry125138
Carroll120826
Amite119941
Webster113432
Jefferson Davis105332
Tunica102525
Claiborne101330
Benton97225
Kemper95126
Humphreys94332
Franklin81723
Quitman78916
Choctaw72817
Jefferson64828
Wilkinson64727
Sharkey49617
Issaquena1686
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 518588

Reported Deaths: 10712
CountyCasesDeaths
Jefferson753351487
Mobile37698798
Madison33829494
Tuscaloosa25245443
Montgomery23942565
Shelby23094238
Baldwin20617300
Lee15510165
Calhoun14277311
Morgan14137268
Etowah13660345
Marshall11952219
Houston10379278
Elmore9988200
Limestone9806147
Cullman9467188
St. Clair9422234
Lauderdale9208227
DeKalb8745181
Talladega8042171
Walker7087275
Jackson6753110
Autauga6715103
Blount6480135
Colbert6200130
Coffee5397112
Dale4766110
Russell428238
Franklin419882
Chilton4080109
Covington4053114
Tallapoosa3892146
Escambia387574
Dallas3526149
Chambers3499122
Clarke346360
Marion3065100
Pike305475
Lawrence295295
Winston272272
Bibb256258
Marengo248561
Geneva245875
Pickens232959
Barbour224755
Hale218675
Butler212266
Fayette208960
Henry187844
Cherokee182044
Randolph176741
Monroe171240
Washington163838
Macon154348
Clay149354
Crenshaw149257
Cleburne146041
Lamar139234
Lowndes136453
Wilcox124327
Bullock121340
Conecuh109028
Perry107926
Sumter102932
Coosa99228
Greene90734
Choctaw58624
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