Shutdown watch: What Trump's DACA moves mean

Put Thursday in the proper perspective: President Donald Trump, who said definitively he would sign what Congress sen...

Posted: Jan 12, 2018 1:51 PM
Updated: Jan 12, 2018 1:51 PM

Put Thursday in the proper perspective: President Donald Trump, who said definitively he would sign what Congress sends him, flatly rejected the lone (serious) bipartisan effort to reach a resolution on the expiring Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program.

And he did it by:

Hardline immigration Republicans pulled the rug out from under the 'group of six'

The government shutdown odds are as high as they've ever been under Trump

  • A. Surprising the two members of the "group of six" by having hardline immigration Republicans waiting for them when they arrived at the White House, all of whom opposed their agreement in principle.

  • B. Speaking in extraordinarily vulgar terms about a central piece of the proposal -- one of the key compromises to address the President's "four pillars" that need to be in any final deal.

In other words, the President, and Republicans in Congress, deliberately pulled the rug out from under the "group of six" proposal, in the most definitive of ways (with Friday morning's presidential tweets attempting to bury it six feet under for good measure).

And this was a coordinated effort by Republicans who saw the proposal as a complete non-starter.

So here's where lawmakers are right now, seven days from a potential shutdown, on getting an actual deal (not an agreement, or an agreement in principle, or like-minded people thinking alike): nowhere close.

House and Senate lawmakers are all gone for the long weekend. Keep an eye on phone calls and staff talks, but we likely won't get a clear glimpse of the players again until Tuesday -- four days before government funding runs out.

And what are the odds of a government shutdown: As high as they've ever been in the Trump administration.

What the "shithole" comment does to negotiations

It's still an open question, but Democrats do see a dynamic shift here. Aides -- and it's worth noting, most directly involved in the talks were very quiet Thursday night, willing to let this just sit out there on its own -- say it clearly hardens the resolve on the negotiators, but also, as one put it, "lays bare the true motivations and thinking of a president who tried to use words like 'love' and how much he cared in front of cameras. You tell me who the public will blame if this doesn't get done."

Of note: The Republicans who are players in the talks -- including those in the room for the comment -- were silent last night, beyond a statement attacking the group of six proposal as "not serious."

Just to make this clear: When CNN reported Thursday that GOP leaders in both chambers had moved hard away from having a DACA deal in place before January 19, it was precisely because the above dynamics were already in motion.

GOP leaders had moved sharply away from anything the "group of six" were working on, and were informed the White House would be with them. That's precisely what happened when that agreement was presented. Republicans say it's just a recognition of their very complicated reality.

"We can't do anything that can be called a 'Flake bill,'" one House GOP aide said flatly. "Our guys would burn the place down."

"Six people who agree on something agreed on something," another Senate GOP aide said. "That doesn't make it a deal and it certainly doesn't fly with our guys."

Or, as Sen. John Cornyn, the second-ranked Republican in the Senate, put it: "Six people can't agree to something that will bind the Congress."

Best sidebar on Capitol Hill

Which one of Trump's best Senate friends wins in the battle for his heart and mind on immigration: Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina or Republican Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas. The behind the scenes on this is fascinating. And on Thursday, with major help from allies in the White House, Cotton got a clear win.

What's still out there

The Group of No. 2s -- Cornyn, Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer -- is where the center of gravity has shifted toward, at least in the eyes of senior Republicans in both chambers.

The problem? They've been together for all of about five days. But in what one GOP aide pointed to as a positive: "They're leadership. They've got juice. And you needed something to blow up before a real deal could come together. And that's what happened Thursday."

What was in the Group of 6 proposal?

Per two sources with direct knowledge:

  • $1.6 billion toward a border fence, with another $1.1 bill in border security money for technology/resources/manpower
  • A 10- or 12-year pathway to citizenship for DREAMers, the length depending on whether they'd applied for protections already or not.
  • Parents of DACA recipients would not be eligible for citizenship, but could receive protected status in three-year increments
  • An overhaul of the diversity visa program to address those who have had their Temporary Protected Status removed, and those selected on merit from low immigration countries

Mississippi Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 319511

Reported Deaths: 7368
CountyCasesDeaths
DeSoto22267267
Hinds20657421
Harrison18401317
Rankin13868282
Jackson13681248
Madison10239224
Lee10052176
Jones8458167
Forrest7824153
Lauderdale7257242
Lowndes6501150
Lamar634088
Lafayette6303121
Washington5419136
Bolivar4836133
Panola4665110
Oktibbeha466098
Pearl River4600147
Marshall4572105
Warren4440121
Pontotoc425073
Union415677
Monroe4155135
Neshoba4059179
Lincoln4008112
Hancock386487
Leflore3515125
Tate342386
Sunflower339391
Pike3368111
Alcorn324272
Scott319774
Yazoo314171
Adams305886
Itawamba305078
Copiah299666
Coahoma298484
Simpson298189
Tippah291868
Prentiss283661
Leake271774
Marion271280
Covington267283
Wayne264442
Grenada264087
George252051
Newton248663
Tishomingo231268
Winston229981
Jasper222148
Attala215073
Chickasaw210559
Holmes190374
Clay187754
Stone187433
Tallahatchie180041
Clarke178980
Calhoun174032
Yalobusha167840
Smith164034
Walthall135347
Greene131833
Lawrence131024
Montgomery128643
Noxubee128034
Perry126738
Amite126242
Carroll122330
Webster115032
Jefferson Davis108033
Tunica108027
Claiborne103130
Benton102325
Humphreys97533
Kemper96629
Franklin85023
Quitman81916
Choctaw79118
Wilkinson69432
Jefferson66228
Sharkey50917
Issaquena1696
Unassigned00

Alabama Coronavirus Cases

Cases: 548323

Reported Deaths: 11288
CountyCasesDeaths
Jefferson809531565
Mobile42066826
Madison35663525
Tuscaloosa26162458
Shelby25595254
Montgomery25081612
Baldwin21839313
Lee16265176
Calhoun14718325
Morgan14626285
Etowah14171363
Marshall12449230
Houston10764288
Elmore10295213
Limestone10182157
St. Clair10160251
Cullman9941201
Lauderdale9596249
DeKalb8967189
Talladega8458184
Walker7335280
Autauga7230113
Blount6944139
Jackson6922113
Colbert6414140
Coffee5627127
Dale4929114
Russell454941
Chilton4472116
Franklin431083
Covington4273122
Tallapoosa4136155
Escambia401780
Chambers3726124
Dallas3607156
Clarke352961
Marion3242106
Pike314078
Lawrence3129100
Winston283572
Bibb268464
Geneva257581
Marengo250665
Pickens236862
Barbour234659
Hale226878
Butler224071
Fayette218162
Henry193843
Cherokee187245
Randolph187044
Monroe179341
Washington170439
Macon162951
Clay160159
Crenshaw155657
Cleburne153244
Lamar146537
Lowndes142054
Wilcox127030
Bullock124242
Conecuh113430
Coosa111429
Perry108626
Sumter105732
Greene93534
Choctaw62025
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Columbus
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The relative lack of humidity has been a welcome change from the summertime stuffiness we’ve had lately. That lack of humidity will once again ensure that temperatures get down into the mid 60s for early morning Thursday. While Friday morning will remain comfortable as well, rain chances ratchet up as a tropical system approaches this weekend.
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