Today's severe weather potential remains low, but non-zero. A slow moving front will cause heavy rainfall as it's main impact.
We have had some viewers asking how it could be so humid/warm, a front close by, and yet, not have a more enhanced threat. I hope this explains why.
My job as a meteorologist, especially when dealing with low-end, maybe/maybe not storm events, is to balance risk and uncertainty. Basically, I balance the likelihood of damage occurring versus the likelihood that my forecast will be perceived as wrong. Then, we make a decision whether to worry people about something that probably won't happen. Ultimately, it's not as simple as "Could tornadoes happen today?," because there are 5-10 times as many days where they "could" happen, than days where they might or will happen.
All of this to reference today's tornado threat. Will we see tornadoes today? Probably not. This is one of those situations, where I want to say "No" with all of my being, but I can't rule it out. Why? I'm managing risk. I'm trying not to be perceived as wrong if my gut and forecast are both wrong. The likelihood of tornadoes is low, though.
Here's why: though we have ingredients, nothing is in the right proportions. The jetstream is back over the cold air and along the front. It needs to flow over the warm sector (the area ahead of the front) in order to produce severe storms that are surface-based (the type that can produce tornadoes). Most of the storm development is behind the front, and thus not surface based, and just rain. The winds ahead of the front, are basically along the same direction as the jetstream. That doesn't led itself to rotating storms quite as well as it would if we had more of a change in direction (surface winds that are strong out of the SE and winds aloft that are also strong out of the W or WSW).
Even though it's made of beef, hamburger steak rarely tastes like a filet, and this setup rarely yields severe weather: it's designed for heavy rainfall.
