We have expanded Sunday's severe weather risk. I encourage you to share this discussion with your family/friends.
Overview: Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Sunday, and it is looking more likely that a few storms could be severe, producing strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. The tornado threat should stay somewhat low for this event, with the greatest likelihood closer to the coast.
Timing: Rain in the AM, Storms in the PM. The peak severe weather potential will be late afternoon and early evening.
Primary Impacts: 1) Moderate/Heavy Rainfall, 2) Isolated strong wind gusts (along a squall line)
Discussion: Moderate/heavy rain is possible for all locations in NE Mississippi as showers/storms could form early Sunday. If severe weather develops for the WTVA Viewing Area, it would be most likely Sunday Afternoon/Evening. It looks more likely that a squall line of heavy rainfall and strong wind could track through Central and perhaps Northern Mississippi early Sunday evening. We expect the primary impacts from this squall line will be heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. Right now, the tornado risk looks fairly low, but even a very slight risk could prompt the SPC (the ones who issue the watches we talk about on the air) to issue a tornado watch for part of Mississippi Sunday PM.
Everything we've discussed hinges upon two factors: moisture & upper-level support.
Moisture is again a limiting factor... expected to arrive just in time for the most significant storm development Sunday evening. Any time we are forecasting "just-in-time moisture," there's a higher than usual likelihood of storms being weaker than anticipated. Thus, there's a possiblilty that we will prep for storms that end up just being rain showers with wind gusts of 40-50mph. Still, we have to respect the possibility that the moiture arrives on-time, and in large enough quantity to spark isolated severe wind gusts in excess of 50-60mph.
Upper-level support is the other piece of the severe weather puzzle. Prior to this morning, I felt it to be out-of-sync enough that the severe weather would stay locked closer to the coast. Some of the initial data we're looking at this morning is now indicating that the timing of the winds aloft could arrive slightly sooner and stronger, leading to a slightly greater chance of strong storms developing in the WTVA Viewing Area.
We'll have more updates tonight at 6/10pm on WTVA News, On Facebook.com/wtvaweather, and on WTVA.com/Weather. We encourage you to log on to http://www.wcsyslp.com/WTVA/athome for site-specific warning information delivered to your phone (of any kind).