Risk Upgrade: Storms Likely Late Tuesday
Storms, some that will be severe, are possible late Tuesday Night and Early Wednesday.
Impacts: Strong wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, brief heavy rainfall
Timing: (for the WTVA Viewing Area outlined by the MS/AL counties in black) Storms will move in from the west late Tuesday (perhaps after midnight) and end east early Wednesday morning (perhaps after 6am).
A strong cold front will move through the central/southern US on Tuesday and Wednesday, causing strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and possibly isolated tornadoes. Timing is the biggest question with this event, and remains the biggest variable. It is the reason why we are leaning toward more of a strong wind threat than a tornado threat. Because this will be a night-time event, we encourage you to look into WTVA's Weathercall for phone alerts that will wake you up if you are in the specific danger zone of severe thunderstorms or tornadoes. (http://www.wtva.com/content/weather/weathercall/default.aspx)
The vertical shear (change in wind direction with height) lends itself toward a squall line that will produce damaging wind gusts. I don't want to diminish the tornado risk with this event, because tornadoes are a possibility, even at inflection points along the squall line, but because of the timing, wind gusts, some in excess of 70mph, remain the primary threat with this storm system. We will have a full discussion at 5/6/10pm on WTVA News and at 9pm on WLOV Fox News.
For updates, stay with WTVA.com and Facebook.com/wtvamatt or Facebook.com/wtvaweather.