Now that we've been through our first few severe weather events of 2012, it's time to repeat the not-so-bold, but necessary prediction: This severe weather season will be MUCH LESS DANGEROUS/DEADLY than last year.
How do I know this? History.
It's the same way I know my retirement stocks will eventually start making money again (even if it's not sometime soon), because history tells that after a recession, there's always significant growth. What happened on April 25-27th last year, was a once in a decade, if not once in a lifetime severe weather outbreak.
Modern weather history tells us that there is only one outbreak of severe weather that compares to last April's outbreak: The SuperOutbreak of 1974. That outbreak, was the measuring stick by which all tornado outbreaks were measured... until last April. For more than 1/3 a century, the 1974 SuperOutbreak went without comparison. That's not a guarantee it will be another 30, 20, or even 10 years before there is another "mega-outbreak," but it's highly unlikely that a comparable situation will repeat this year.
So what's the point of this blog? Be aware of severe weather, be prepared for severe weather, but please don't live in fear. It's true, it only takes a single tornado to change your life, but as long as you have a plan of what to do and where to go, tornadoes are more about reacting than worrying.
Everyone has different, lingering effects from last year's tornadoes. My lasting effect is that I feel guilty every time I think, much less mention the word tornado. People are scared after last year, just by the sound of rain, much less wind/thunder. I even find MYSELF gasping a bit when it rains at night. Since last year's tornadoes, I've found that the hardest part of my job is balancing the need to alert people that there's a slim possibility of tornadoes, with the desire to keep them from becoming more scared.
History shows us that this year will be less active. History also shows us that only time will allow us to regain our nerve.
