When it comes to tornado producing storms it has to do with the prime mix of all of the proper ingredients. We had all those ingredients come together on April 27th and hence we had a major tornado outbreak across the area. The perfect mix of ingredients happen so very rarely to produce such events. As we go into tomorrow, we talk of mostly damaging winds as our main culprit when it comes to severe weather. Yes, we may see some hail and the possibility of a few isolated tornadoes. So you may be wondering what is missing that we only have a slim, if any chance for a tornado. It basically comes to wind shear.
So, what is wind shear? The dictionary basically says this . . . . . A change in wind direction and/or speed between different altitudes. Well, tomorrow we do not have the proper wind shear needed to produce a lot of tornadoes in our area. Surely, we could get a few isolated weaker ones develop. However, if all goes as it suppose to tomorrow. We will not see one of the prime ingredients come together in our mix for a tornado producing storm.
Normally, when a storm system approaches us the the winds are pretty strong out of the West or Northwest several thousand feet above us. For the best wind shear we would need Southeasterly winds at the ground level. Here is how it works, as you go up in the atmosphere those Southeasterly winds will gradually turn to the West or Northwest as we go higher in altitude. That would be an almost 180 degree turn (basically opposite the original direction at the ground level). Tomorrow, our surface winds will be mostly out of the South and/or Southwest. So the winds do not have to turn as much as they go up in altitude. Hence, there is not that much of a twist expected in the atmosphere. So, hence it all comes down to the twists and turns. The lack of any major twist in the atmosphere tomorrow, leads us to a lesser chance for tornado producing storms.
So if all goes as it is suppose to we will see the following occur as we go through the day tomorrow. Rain and storms will be along the main front as it passes through the area tomorrow and tomorrow evening. We will see mostly a strong wind threat with these storms and any isolated or scattered ones that develop ahead of the main system. Once again there will not be the proper twist for any major tornado development. However, there will still be some strong winds with these storms. We have a strong jet stream flowing up above us. This will help fuel the storms to make them good wind producing ones. We could see winds in excess of 55 mph with some storms. So we could end up seeing some wind damage. Also, as mentioned earlier in this blog, I cannot rule out a weaker tornado, however that will be a rare event. Stay tuned to us here at WTVA and keep in touch with us also with Twitter and Facebook. Also, now would be a great time to sign up for WTVA Weather Call. You can find all that info on our main page WTVA.com.
