Christmas Severe risk: thinking remains the same. Severe Storms likely in Central MS. Moisture is limited for NEMS.
Thinking remains the same: a severe weather outbreak is likely in Central/South Mississippi during the day on Christmas. Storms will progress of Louisiana during the late morning/noon time. The storms will ride ahead of strong upper-level winds aloft. It seems likely that there could be a sustained strong wind and/or tornado threat in the moderate risk zone. As previously discussed, the limiting factor for N. Mississippi is moisture. If moisture was higher, the moderate risk would extend possibly as far north as Monroe/Chickasaw Counties. It is possible that this risk area could be expanded in a later update. It is also possible that moisture remains limited, and only a slight expansion of the moderate risk area occurs.
Timing… Still somewhat uncertain. Initial threat will be in the afternoon. Storms will be on-going to southwest initially in the morning. Storms develop northward as a warm front pushes more unstable air from here the coast toward Tennessee Valley. This front should move northward throughout the area in the afternoon, and possibly prior to sunset. Once this initial front moves through there is the possibility for isolated storms throughout the evening. It is still possible and overnight cold front with a night a few strong showers and thunderstorms as it moves through as well. It is still too early to timeout specific cities, counties, or travel routes. A simple rule of thumb, though, the threat will start Southwest develop north east.
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